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Tanya Stevenson's Racing UK Blog |
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Tanya's Blog - Saturday 24th August 2013
Where are all the punters at York?
On Friday I felt old. My bones ached and the York betting ring had no umph. Thousands of people filled the enclosures and terraces, yet the atmosphere was flat and it was hard to find a punter. The bookmakers, who have paid nearly £1000 to occupy their pitch for four days, (that’s before other expenses) looked redundant and spent most their time twiddling their thumbs.
Simenon returned 15-8 in the Lonsdale Cup, yet I saw two boards near me offering 9-4 on the off and not one person rushed in! When most of the ring was 11-4 Shea Shea for the Nunthorpe, Apollo Bookmakers stood on their own at 10-3.
As I said on air, those who did the most business were the vendors selling flip flops. As each race passed the temperature dropped, too, and the wind picked up. It had a stormy feel and rain imminent.
My mood wasn’t helped by the wagers I had. Bubble well and truly burst, confidence lost, and even the cricket at the Oval was played at a pedestrian pace.
I know when the ring is quiet, when in turn various bookmakers can remove themselves from their pitches and chat amongst themselves or to me.
As I mentioned above there were plenty of people at York, but they weren’t betting with the bookmakers. Mobile devices are so convenient or they may have placed their hard-earned before leaving the house.
Before typing this I spent a good while rummaging around my car boot seeing if there were any waterproofs.
Everything on Saturday is weather dependent. The relentless downpour on Thursday evening was soon sucked from the ground by the soaring temperatures early Friday, but the forecast for Friday night and through Ebor day is not so promising.
Steps To Freedom came out of the Betfred Ebor early Friday morning, which solved one dilemma I had. Now my fancies are reduced to three; Ted Veale, Number Theory and Hanoverian Baron. I sense there’ll be a mix and match in the Exacta stakes.
Later on in York’s card I like Hi There of Richard Fahey’s if allowed to take his chance in the 5.00.
I sense there could be plenty of non-runners today also, so making decisions at this early stage could prove fruitless as races take different shapes if they lose a front runner, the favourite or just sheer numbers.
Any rain should help Cristoforo Colombo, who hasn’t been seen since his fifth in the 2000 Guineas, yet he was running on well enough at Newmarket. This is a gentle return, which hopefully he’ll make the most of.
Other than my little dabble in the Ebor, the other handicap I like is the 2.55 at Goodwood, where I’m going to take Axiom to reverse form, just, with Glen Moss on their meeting at Newbury seven days ago.
Tanya’s Saturday tips:
2.05 York: Cristoforo Colombo at 9-4 with Coral
2.55 Goodwood: Axiom at 28-1 with
SkyBet
Tanya’s Pointers:
Five of the last ten winners have been 20-1 or bigger
Since 2000 all but two of the winners of the Ebor have been drawn 14 or higher
Ten winners of the Ebor since 2000 have been fifth in the betting or worse
Seven of the last ten winners came from the first three in the betting
Eight of the last ten winners were drawn no higher than eight
Only one of the last ten favourites have won
Since 1988 only four winners came into the race unbeaten
Eight of the last ten winners of the Gimcrack were priced no bigger than 8-1
The last six winners came from the first two in the betting
Eight of the last ten winners have come from the first three in the betting
The last ten winners of have been drawn no higher than nine
Five of the last ten winners of the Betfair Celebration Mile have been drawn two
Only one winning favourite of the Betfair Celebration Mile in the last ten years
