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Identifying the Epsom Derby Trends
25/05/11

The Epsom Derby is without doubt a unique challenge that presents its own problems for both horse and rider and many will think that it presents a race which is difficult to evaluate and find the winner of.

Workforce
2010 Epsom Derby winner
© Racehorse Photos

Workforce

However, over the years some remarkably consistent statistical trends have emerged to provide us with at least a good starting point when it comes to whittling down the contenders to a small group of likely winners.

For anyone looking to bet Epsom derby money it makes sense to ensure that your selection has won over at least 7 furlongs as a two-year-old, all of the last 10 winners have exhibited that trait along with the fact that they have made their debuts at a Grade 1 track. Experience tends to be important as nine out of the last ten winners also had between three and seven career runs and eight out of the ten had at least two juvenile runs.

Going to Epsom in good form is also an essential factor – seven of the last ten winners of the Epsom Derby won on their previous outings and the majority have displayed a stamina trait with six of the last ten winners having won over at least 1m 2f at three, and you can use this to take advantage when it comes to the Epsom Derby betting offers.

Given the experience element in the trends it's not surprising to find that the last winner not to have run as a juvenile was Commander In Chief in 1993. Consistent form is within the make-up of seven of the last ten winners as those seven had either been unbeaten or had not lost since their debut.

Finally it also pays to have a close look at the ratings of the combatants that are published in the Racing Post with nine of the last ten having gained a rating of at least 119 and that could prove a good starting point in your statistical search for the 2011 winner of the Epsom Derby – a race where the trends have provided a good guide over the past 10 years.

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