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Frankel Well Ahead of the Curve – At the Moment
28/09/10

The breathtaking performance from Henry Cecil’s Frankel in winning the Group 2 Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes at Ascot over the weekend has sent the ante-post markets for next year’s classic races into a real frenzy, writes Elliot Slater.

Bookmaker reaction to the Galileo colt’s 10-length demolition of the opposition was swift, Frankel now on general offer at just 2/1 with Irish horse racing tips to win the 2000 Guineas in 2011, (it’s 10/1 Saamidd and 12/1 bar), whilst he trades at only 4/1 to win the Epsom Derby, and it’s 16/1 bar.

On a line through Saturday’s runner-up Klammer, Prince Khaled Abdullah’s new sensation is certainly a high class juvenile. Klammer, winner of a listed race in France on his previous outing, had previously been beaten only 2 ½ lengths in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes, and was less than six lengths behind Strong Suit in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot.

Looking at Frankel you see a horse that appears to be far more physically developed than most two-year-old’s and his superiority over the rivals he has met so far has been unquestionable. What is questionable however, is whether he has yet to race against a genuine Group 1 horse, and whether his undoubted physical advantage over the rest of his generation will be quite so marked next season when other horses catch up?

Last year St Nicholas Abbey was a brilliant juvenile but he has raced only once this term in finishing down the field in the 2000 Guineas. He is still entered for the ‘Arc’ on Sunday, but is by no means a definite runner. The transition from two to three years is a difficult one for a racehorse and I definitely feel that a ‘wait and see’ policy is best advised for Frankel, as so much could potentially go wrong between now and next year’s classic races.

Taking 2/1 for the 2000 Guineas, or 4/1 for the Derby is, to my mind, ludicrous, regardless of whether horse racing Ireland pundits see Frankel win the Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket in a few weeks time.