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King George VI Chase 10-Year-Trends
22/12/10

St Stephens Day or Boxing Day, depending on which side of the Irish Sea you reside, is the busiest race day of the year, and the King George VI Chase at Kempton is the big race of the day.

Kauto Star
© Grossick Racing Photography

It has been won by many of the greatest steeplechasers in history and in the last decade champions such as Best Mate, Kicking King and Kauto Star have taken it. This year Kauto Star is attempting to surpass the great Desert Orchid and win the race for the fifth time. The fact Kauto Star has won the race last 4 renewals does skew the trends slightly.

Below we take a look at the trends for the last 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-0-1
6yo: 2-3-13
7yo: 4-7-21
8yo: 1-4-28
9yo: 2-2-16
10yo: 0-3-11
11+: 1-0-10
6 and 7 year olds have the best record in the race with a combined record of 6-10-34. Compare that to horses aged 8 or older (4-10-65).

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners won on their last completed start
10 of 10 winners had run in the past 55 days
10 of 10 winners had run 1 to 4 times that season
8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (1 of the 2 exception was runner-up in a grade 1 on only previous start over 3M+)
9 of 10 winners had run in 8 to 22 chases
10 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 chase (last 9 had won more than 1)

Other Races
Previous year’s winner (Kauto Star): 54401111 (4-0-8)
Cheltenham Gold Cup winner (Imperial Commander): 1111 (4-0-4)
Betfair Chase winner (Imperial Commander): P1171 (3-0-5)
John Durkan Chase winner: 151 (2-0-3)
Peterborough Chase winner: 614334P (1-2-7)
Jnwine.com Champion Chase winner (Kauto Star): P1 (1-0-2)
Reynoldstown Novice Chase winner (Burton Port): 432 (0-2-3)
Aintree Bowl winner (What A Friend): 5443P3P2 (0-2-8)
Punchestown Gold Cup winner (Planet Of Sound): 31 (1-1-2)
Scilly Isles Novice Chase winner (Punchestowns): 2 (0-1-2)
Melling Chase winner (Albertas Run): 653 (0-1-3)
Feltham Novice Chase winner (Long Run): 3P6 (0-1-3)
Charlie Hall Chase winner (Nacarat): 526P (0-1-4)
Ryanair Chase winner (Albertas Run): PP5 (0-0-3)
6 of 10 winners ran in the previous year’s race, finishing 221111
5 of 10 winners (last 5) ran in the Betfair Chase, finishing 311U1
3 of 10 winners ran in the JNWine Champion Chase, finishing 321
2 of 10 winners ran in the Punchestown Gold Cup, finishing 21

Trainers
Paul Nicholls (4-1-12) has won the race with Kauto Star for past 4 years.
Willie Mullins (1-1-3) saddled Florida Pearl to run in the race 3 times, gaining a win, a second and a fourth.
Nicky Henderson (0-4-9) and Jonjo O’Neill (0-2-4) have each had multiple placed runners in the race in the past 10 years.
Irish-trained runners (3-1-7) have produced 3 winners and a second from 7 runners.

Price
7 of 10 favourites have won (including the last 6) and backing favourites would have left you with a level stakes profit of 5.56.
There has been only one winner to be sent off at odds greater than 8/1 in the past 10 years.

Conclusion:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 6 or 7
- Won last time out in the past 55 days
- Won over 3M+
- Won a Grade 1 chase (more than one ideally)
- Finished in the first 2 in last year’s renewal
- Finished in the first 3 in the Betfair Chase
- Cheltenham Gold Cup winner
- Favourite (priced no bigger than 8/1)
- Trained by Paul Nicholls or in Ireland