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racing news |
Ebor Handicap 10-Year-Trends
16/08/11
The Betfred Ebor Handicap is the showpiece event of York’s four day Ebor festival which starts on Wednesday 17th August. The Ebor meeting was abandoned at York in 2008 season after the track was waterlogged and as a result the Ebor was run as the Newburgh handicap at Newbury. However from a trends perspective we will focus on the last 10 runnings of the Ebor at York.
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Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 2-7-14
4yo: 2-12-84
5yo: 5-8-61
6yo+: 1-3-45
3 year olds have the best record, having won 2 of the 10 runnings from less than 8% of the total runners and 60% of their vintage making the frame.
5 year olds have won 5 of the last 10 runnings from approximately 28.8% of the runners.
Horses aged 6 or above have a terrible record, having gained just 1 win from 45 runners in the past 10 runnings.
Weights
Horses carrying 8-13 or more: 3-18-116
Horses carrying 8-12 or less: 7-12-88
Only 3 horses since 1995 have carried over 8-12 to victory, all 3 posted a career high RPR of 107+ on their last start, 2 were running under a penalty for winning a race at Glorious Goodwood.
Official Ratings
Horses rated 103 to 112: 0-8-38
Horses rated 92 to 102: 7-19-129
Horses rated 91 or less: 3-3-37
7 of last 10 winners have all been officially rated between 92 and 102.
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 on 1 of last 2 starts
8 of 10 winners ran in class 2 or better on last flat start (2 exceptions won class 3)
10 of 10 winners posted highest RPR of last 12 months in last 2 starts
10 of 10 winners had run in past 40 days
9 of 10 winners won a race that season (exception only ran in listed or group races)
9 of 10 winners had won at class 3 or better (exception 2nd in a group 3)
8 of 10 winners had run in 8 or fewer handicaps
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 4 handicaps
9 of 10 winners had won over 1M 4F+ (exception was 2nd in 1M 6F group 3)
3 of 10 winners (last 3) had won a hurdles race earlier that year
5 of 10 winners ran at Glorious Goodwood last time
2 of 10 winners ran at Ascot last time out
2 of 10 winners ran at the Galway Festival last time
Other Races
Northumberland Plate winner (Tominator): 004100 (1-1-6)
John Smith’s Silver Cup winner (Tactician): 3 (0-1-1)
Duke Of Edinburgh handicap winner (Fox Hunt): 30 (0-1-2)
Braveheart handicap winner (Red Cadeaux): 939 (0-1-3)
Bet On Wimbledon totesport.com H’cap winner (Sivino): 75 (0-0-2)
Old Newton Cup winner (Halicarnassus): 805009 (0-0-6)
2 of 10 winners ran in the Ascot Stakes, finishing 72
2 of 10 winners ran in the Summer Stakes at Goodwood, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners ran in the Northumberland Plate, finishing 41
2 of 10 winners ran in the Icap Handicap at Ascot, finishing 46
2 of 10 winners ran in previous Cesarewitch, finishing 00
5 of 10 winners ran at Royal Ascot that season
5 of 10 winners finished in first 4 at Glorious Goodwood last time
Trainers
Luca Cumani (2-2-7) has won the race three times since 1999 and 5 of his 7 runners in past 10 years have made the first 5 home.
Aidan O’Brien (1-3-5) does particularly well with his 3yos. The four 3yos he has saddled in the last 10 runnings have finished 1st-3rd-2nd-2nd.
Amanda Perrett (1-1-6) is the only other trainer with an entrant to have won the race since 2000.
Philip Hobbs (0-2-2) has seen both his representatives make the places, while James Fanshawe (0-2-4) and Michael Stoute (0-2-9) have also saddled a couple of placed- finishers.
Irish-trained runners (3-4-16) have won 3 of the last 10 from less than 8% of the total runners. They have done particularly well recently, filling the runners-up spot in 2007, the first 2 home in 2009 and the 1st & 4th last year.
Draw
Horses drawn the highest 7 stalls: 9-6-70
Horses drawn in the middle stalls: 0-11-64
Horses drawn in the bottom 7 stalls: 1-13-70
9 of 10 winners (last 5) were drawn in the highest 7 stalls
Racing Tactics
8 of 10 winners (last 7) were held up in midfield or rear
Price
No strong trend to be gleaned from the prices with 5 of the winners going off 14/1 or shorter and the other 5 going off 16/1 or bigger including one at 100/1.
Favourites (1-5-10) have won just 1 of the last 10 and giving a level stakes loss of 5.50.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 3 to 5
• Carrying 8-12 or less (or carrying a penalty for a Glorious Goodwood win)
• Officially rated 92 to 102
• Finished in the first two in 1 of last 2 runs
• Posted highest RPR in last 2 starts
• Won a race this season
• Ran in a class 2 or better in the last 40 days
• Had last run at Goodwood, Ascot or Galway
• Run in 8 or fewer handicaps (winning no more than 4)
• Won at class 3 level or higher
• Won over 1M 4F+
• Drawn in highest 7 stalls
• Hold up horses favoured
• Trained by Luca Cumani, Philip Hobbs or an Aidan O’Brien 3yo
