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Breeders’ Cup Classic 10-Year-Trends
02/11/11

The Breeders’ Cup Classic is the most valuable horse race run in the United States each year and considered by many to be the most prestigious horse race run in the world. Raven’s Pass became the first British winner of the race in 2008, the first time the Classic was run on a synthetic pro-ride surface. In 2009 Zenyatta became the first ever mare to win the race and she almost repeated the feat last year. There has been no standout American colt on the dirt this year, which is why another female, Havre De Grace, is considered to have a big chance of being the second female winner of the race.

In 2009 Zenyatta became the first ever mare to win the race and she almost repeated the feat last year.
© Briens Photo

Zenyatta

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 2-7-44
4yo: 5-9-43
5yo: 3-1-21
6yo+: 0-3-11
Horses aged 4 or 5 have won 8 of the last 10 from approximately 53.8% of total runners.
The two 3yo winners both posted a career high RPR in winning a grade/group 1 on their previous start and had finished in first 4 in a British Classic or a Triple Crown race.
No horse aged above 5 has ever won the race and all 3 horses aged 6+ to be placed in this had finished in first 4 the previous year (2 were returning winners, the other had finished 4th & 6th in previous 2 Classics).

Breeding
9 of 10 winners were sired by a stallion that raced in North America (exception was by Candy Stripes, who was bred in Kentucky but raced in France)
8 of 10 winners were sired by a graded winner in America (2 exceptions were by sires who were placed in grade/group 1 company)

Gender
Only 2 female horses have run in the race in the past decade. Azeri finished 5th in 2004 and Zenyatta won the race in 2009 and was a fast finishing 2nd last year.

Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners won last time out
10 of 10 winners finished in first 3 in a grade 1 or 2 last time
9 of 10 winners finished in first 4 on all starts that season (the 10 winners collectively had 49 previous starts the year they won this, only once in those 49 runs were they out of the first 4)
9 of 10 winners had won over 1M 1F or 1M 2F (exception was the one British-trained winner, who had never run over further than a mile)
8 of 10 winner had won a grade/group 1 (2 exceptions won a grade 2)
7 of 10 winners had their last run 20 to 35 days ago (3 exceptions had won the Woodward Stakes or Whitney Handicap last time out)
6 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 in a grade 1 at that year’s BC track (other 4 were having first start at the BC track)

Other Races
Woodward Stakes (Havre De Grace): 113740 (2-1-6)
Santa Anita Handicap winner (Game On Dude): 1370 (1-1-4)
Suburban H’cap winner (Flat Out): 3010 (1-1-4)
Jockey Club Gold Cup winner (Flat Out): 840021440 (1-1-9)
Goodwood Stakes winner (Game On Dude): 0175 (1-0-4)
Travers Stakes winner (Stay Thirsty): 28722464 (0-3-8)
Strub Stakes winner (Twirling Candy): 2 (0-1-1)
Apple Blossom H’cap winner (Havre De Grace): 52 (0-1-2)
Previous Breeders Cup Juvenile winner (Uncle Mo): 44 (0-0-2)
Belmont Stakes winner (Ruler On Ice): 674 (0-0-3)
Super Derby winner (Prayer For Relief): 898 (0-0-3)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Whitney Handicap, finishing 211
3 of 10 winners ran in the Woodward Stakes, finishing 311
3 of 10 winners ran in the Santa Anita Derby, finishing 146
2 of 10 winners ran in Jockey Club Gold Cup last time, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in the Goodwood Stakes, finishing 31
2 of 10 winners ran in Stephen Foster H’cap, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season’s Clark H’cap, finishing 11

Churchill Downs BC Classics
The Breeders’ Cup has been held at Churchill Downs 7 times, and it can be illuminating to see if they are any trends specific to those 7 runnings.
Woodward Stakes winner (Havre De Grace): 16530 (1-1-5)
Super Derby winner (Prayer For Relief): 2491 (1-1-4)
Goodwood Stakes winner (Game On Dude): 76217 (1-1-5)
Both 3yo winners of the BC Classic at Churchill Downs had finished in the first 2 in the Super Derby.
3 of the 4 winners of the Whitney H’cap to run in the BC Classic at Churchill Downs have won it. The 1988 Whitney H’cap winner, Personal Ensign, was a filly and went on to win the BC Distaff at Churchill Downs that year.

Trainers
Kiaran McLaughlin (1-0-2) is the only trainer with a runner in this year’s race to have won it since 2001.
Nicholas Zito (0-2-6) has gained a couple of places from his 6 runners.
Todd Pletcher (0-1-9) and Aidan O’Brien (0-1-10) have each managed just 1 place since 2001 while Bob Baffert (0-0-4) has seen his 4 runners all finish out of the money.
Record of European-trained runners: 1-3-16 (only winner came on Pro-Ride, record on dirt is 0-1-11)

Price
8 of 10 winners (last 7) came from first 4 in the betting & were priced 8/1 or lower
Favourites (1-3-10) have a very poor record in this recently, having gained only won 1 in the last 10 runnings, giving a level stakes loss of 6.75.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Sired by a graded winner that raced in North America
• Aged 4 or 5 (or a 3yo that finished 1st or 2nd in the 2011 Super Derby)
• Finished in first 4 in all starts in 2011
• Finished in first 3 in a grade 1 or 2 last time (ideally won)
• Had last run 20 to 35 days ago (or won Woodward or Whitney last time)
• Previously won a grade/group 1
• Won over 1M 1F or 1M 2F
• Finished in first 4 in Churchill Downs grade 1 in 2011 (or having 1st run here)
• Won the Woodward, Whitney, Stephen Foster and/or Clark H’cap
• Ran in Santa Anita Derby, Goodwood Stakes and/or JC Gold Cup
• Trained in North America
• From the first 4 in the betting

 

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