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Tanya Stevenson's Racing UK Blog |
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Tanya's Blog - Saturday 3rd August 2013
Van Percy can hit the back of the net
What a thrill. Some days it all comes right and Friday was one of them. Moviesta was a hero and once again travelled with ease into his race and won the King George Stakes by a length and a half. He is as short as 8-1 now for the Nunthorpe Stakes, but I can see Bryan Smart thinking of Longchamp just as he did with Tangerine Trees a few years back.
I can’t even imagine what would have happened had he got into Saturday's Stewards’ Cup. In the betting I guess he would have been overlooked for more fancied runners such as Tropics and Heaven’s Guest who beat him at Newmarket. He would have been at the mercy of the draw, and he may well have turned it into a procession or been stopped in his run. Funny how things work out, he missed the ballot by two for the Stewards’ Cup and ends up winning a Group 2.
As for the draw I hold my hands up in frustration and say we are none the wiser. Moviesta was drawn 5 and as soon as the runners left the stalls they drifted towards the side of the low numbers, yet in the last two furlongs there was a concertina effect and Swiss Spirit was having a great run from stall 17 on the stands' side with Moviesta drifting across the course to join him and kick on to win easily.
No help for Stewards' Cup Saturday!
The last day of a fabulous five: we have Duel on the Downs 2 with Sky Lantern v Just The Judge and to be safe I’m opting for the bigger prices about Just Pretending and Hot Snap.
As for the Stewards’ Cup and the consolation race, I’m sticking with stats for the first and Clive Cox. One of his trio, Seeking Magic, has always been a horse I love. Incredibly consistent and he can deal with a sharp downhill course.
In the Stewards' Cup I like Humidor at a big price - hoping he will get home over six furlongs. But I will have a sentimental bet on Free Zone.
In between I thought the course would be ideal for Van Percy in the 2.40pm - rewind to his Haydock win where he found trouble and Cathy Gannon performed miracles to get him home. Same again please.
Then while every one is concentrating on Goodwood I can’ t miss Trojan Rocket at his favourite July course.
Tanya's Saturday tips:
2.40 Goodwood: Van Percy at 16-1 with bet365
5.15 Newmarket: Trojan Rocket at 12-1with Bet Victor
Tanya's Pointers:
The last nine favourites have been beaten
Kevin Ryan has had no luck with his 11 runners over the last decade
Clive Cox has had two winners from just five runners
The favourite has run woefully in the last ten years with only one second placing and a third in that time.
Seven of the last ten winners carried 8st 13lbs or less
All of the last ten winners came from the first three in the betting with the biggest price 11-2
Nine of the last ten winners had at least contested a Group One
Seven of the last ten winners had won at least one Group One prior to winning the Nassau
Seven of the last ten winners had finished no worse than second on their previous start
Six of the last eight winners carried 9-1 or more
Eight of the last ten winners were aged four or five
Seven of the last ten winners were drawn stalls 10 to 19
Eight of the last ten winners had no more than four races prior to Glorious Goodwood that season
All of the last ten winners had won over six furlongs
Thirteen of the last 16 winners ran in the Wokingham and of those twelve had had another subsequent run prior to Goodwood!
The last horse to run in a Group race prior to the Stewards’ Cup and win was back in 1981
In the last 25 years only one three-year-old winner
