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Tanya's Blog - Saturday 14th September 2013

Sometimes You Just Have to Sit Up and Take Notice

Come 3.30pm on Friday there was light drizzle in the air, the umbrellas had been erected over the bookmaker’s pitches and hope for Galileo Rock’s participation in the St Leger was on the wane.

All is not lost yet as word is that David Wachman will be walking the turf of Town Moor early tomorrow to make a final decision.  His decision is made harder by the prospect of rain at the Curragh for the Irish St Leger, for which Galileo Rock is also entered, on Sunday.

As for the atmosphere in the betting ring it was cheerful until Ihtimal was pummelled into 11-10 from 6-4.  There wasn’t as much turnover as on Thursday but the crowd was still healthy.  With a day to go I have to report decent trading with differences of opinion and for sheer fun the ring has been immense. I can’t wait for Racing Post Trophy Day in October.

I have an early start on Saturday for the Morning Line. I’m assigned with the going report and the stable block, which will be a thrill on such a prestigious day.  Learning all the correct procedures has been insightful. 

With the Ladbrokes St Leger market static until the morning I’ve tried to look elsewhere for my selections.  For the record my St Leger selection is Foundry.  For a horse on only his second start, and first for the season, to run second in the Great Voltigeur you just have to sit up and take note. 

Back on March 30 Levitate romped home to win the Doncaster Lincoln, since then his runs have been few and far between. Connections have been obviously waiting for the suitable soft ground.  Come Saturday there’ll be a long wait until he runs as he is the last race on the card at 6.05pm. 

My only other choice is Viztoria, in the hope her fillies’ allowance will be enough to fend off the challenges of Aljamaaheer.  Roger Varian’s 50% strike rate is formidable and scary, especially when trying to oppose him.  Yet Viztoria’s run in the Coronation Stakes is an eye-catching one.  Stepped down to a better distance she can show her worth in the Park Stakes at 3.15.

Tanya's Saturday tips:

3.15 Doncaster: Viztoria at 5-1 with Bet Victor

6.05 Doncaster: Levitate at 10-1 with Ladbrokes

Tanya's pointers: 

Ladbrokes St Leger:

Seventeen of the last 30 favourites have won the Ladbrokes St Leger

Eighteen of the last 20 winners of the Ladbrokes St Leger finished now worse than third on their most recent start

Fourteen of the last 16 winners had run in either Goodwood’s Gordon Stakes or York’s Great Voltigeur

From the last 26 horses to have run in the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot only Mastery has won

From the last 12 horses to have run in the Oaks seven finished in the first three at Doncaster

Since 2006 of the nine horses to run in the Gordon Stakes four have won

Since 1994 from the 26 horses to run in the King Edward VII Stakes to come on to Doncaster, ten won the St Leger, two came second and two finished third.

Godolphin have won the St Leger six times

From John Gosden’s last 13 St Leger runners he has had four winners, a second and a third

The last Irish-trained winner was Scorpion in 2005

At The Races Champagne Stakes:

Only two of the last ten favourites have won the Champagne Stakes

Seven of the last ten winners of the Portland were drawn 13 or higher

Ladbrokes Portland Stakes: 

David Nicholls last 29 Portland runners have all been beaten

The last six winners of the Portland have been aged five

Ancient Cross has been beaten on all his eight runs at Doncaster

Roger Varian has had nine winners from his last 18 runners and saddles Steps.