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Captain's Blog - 5th April 2011

I am in the studio today helping out the guys on course at Pontefract. They will be analysing all the action there and at Kempton as well. I always enjoy the Racing at Pontefract and will be sticking to the maxim that when there is moisture in the ground challenging off the rail and wide is the best place to be. At Kempton we will no doubt be dealing with slowly run races and horses that race prominently being over bet particularly if they are well drawn. It should be an interesting day, please join us from 1.30pm today. Stewart Machin and Graham Cunningham will be your expert hosts hopefully chiselling out a winner or two for you.

I managed to crunch together some speed figures from the Cheltenham Festival and the results were interesting. Al Ferof and Sizing Europe produced the outstanding figures from the meeting both obtaining a variant adjusted figure of 145. Long Run was slower recording a figure of 136 and in doing so beat Denman who was a few spots below the form he showed in defeat at Newbury in the Henessey. Hurricane Fly ran a figure of 135 despite the race being a bit of a stop start affair and is clearly capable of better. Captain Chris ran a lifetime best figure of 134 giving him a fair bit to find to become a Champion two mile chaser.

The beauty of speed figures is that they can put races in context and take the mystery out of them. For example the County Hurdle produced a below par figure and whilst the race looked to be very strong in terms of form and the pace it was run at the figures produced tell us it was not strongly run and was in fact a messy affair. The runner up Get Me Out Of Here ran exactly the same figure that he had done on his previous two starts. To come second he simply ran to form, which is a conclusion you could not come to without the magic numbers. Plenty of people willl disagree with me on this one and that is fair enough, but we all need a foundation on which to build our form analysis and mine is speed figures. Another conclusion that can be drawn from the figures is that in defeat in the Supreme Novices Hurdle Cue Card ran just as well as he has ever done. Earlier in the year when he won at Cheltenham he ran a figure of 140, in the Supreme he ran 137. Finally keep a close eye on Sir Des Champs who ran a figure of 131 in the Martin Pipe Conditionals Race and could be a future star.

I hope this is of some use to those of you who like the figures, if not no worries, but thanks for reading.

I am off to the office now. All the best.

Today’s Selection

3:40 Pontefract - Descaro (each way)