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Tanya's Blog - 7th April 2011

If you read my blog yesterday, I told you I didn’t like tipping favourites and two seconds was proof enough, so infuriating, when will I learn and discipline myself not to bother!

How good is today’s card at Aintree? Something special and ideal for me as under some circumstances it may be worth taking on the favourite, general consensus is that Denman is as popular as Peter Crouch is with the Tottenham faithful at present amongst the bookmakers. He is the one to take on, he has fallen at the meeting before and Nacarat is the obvious to lead all the way. I’ve laid Denman so we’ll see!

The first race is one to watch and enjoy, I never like seeing a great champion such as Big Buck’s get turned over, let’s hope he makes it the perfect dozen. On to the second race at 2.30 and I want to take on Zarkander even though this flat type should be suited to the Mildmay course. If, however he went to the stupid price of 6-4 or bigger I would be a backer. Looking at the race PALAWI seems massive at 25-1 each-way, kept away from Cheltenham a quiet season will do him proud. But it is a race which favours those who have run in the Triumph and I thought Local Hero ran well. I will be dabbling in a small combination forecast PALAWI, LOCAL HERO and KUMBESHWAR.

TURKO, TURKO, TURKO, cometh the hour, cometh Sam Waley-Cohen, who knows how to get round the big fences and Turko has a touch of class. It also pays to follow horses who have been round the course before and I can’t believe VAN NESS is 100-1 he was fourth in this twelve months ago and will be ridden to get round amidst all the spruce flying he may find himself getting at least a place once more.

Paul Nicholls has a hideous record in the 4.15, there is no reason why CHANINBAR can’t lead all the way again, but as a saver MAMLOOK looks massive at 8-1 with Victor Chandler .

I’m giving the 4.50 a big swerve, but do like ORSIPPUS in the 5.25, he won at the meeting last year and was a brilliant third in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham. Of course I have t have a just in case each-way on NOTUS DE LA TOUR but that’s due to sentiment as the other half owns a share. Ski Sunday is too big also at 16-1 and those three are my combination forecast in the race. In summary the nap is Turko.

POINTERS

All winners of the Liverpool Hurdle had previously finished no worse than second at the meeting

Six of the last seven winners of the Liverpool Hurdle had run in the World Hurdle

Six of the last ten favourites have won Aintree’s 2.30

The last six winners of Aintree’s 2.30 were placed at the Cheltenham Festival

Favourites have a poor record in the Totesport Bowl with only two winning in the last ten years

The superb Weatherbys Betting Guide to Aintree and Punchestown informs us that in the Foxhunters, Aintree’s 3.40 the majority of the last 18 winners can be found in the first four of the betting. Plus most of the winners were aged 9 or over

Paul Nicholls is a trainer to avoid in Aintree’s 4.15 with his last 18 runners all beaten

A stat not to be missed in today’s Racing Post – ‘Signposts’ is John Gosden’s record at Ripon at present five winners from his last 8 runners at the course