Tanya Stevenson
Tanya Stevenson's Racing UK Blog
Tuesday 26th July 2016

Racing UK

Get on Dutch Connection at Goodwood

I’m still getting my breath back after being blown away by Fair Eva at Ascot on Saturday.

She’s a big, strong, muscular filly with plenty of attributes similar to her sire, Frankel, especially her stylish and effortless running style. Yet close up she retains a babyish aura. Where next? I cannot wait!

Losses were recouped with Librisa Breeze in the International on the same card. It was a plan well executed.

I wonder if that has paid for a new super signing at Brighton Football Club?  Look out for any market moves on the owner’s Havana Beat today.

I’d cut Time Test some slack. It was a good run and I’m not sure his detractors have given enough respect to Mondialiste, a winner of the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile and then six lengths ahead of Time Test when conceding 3lb to him in the Breeders’ Cup Mile at Keeneland.

His two runs before York can be forgiven because of soft ground. Time Test is still yet to win a Group 1, something Mondialiste has on his CV.

Ryan Moore was masterful on Highland Reel in the King George and I’m sure they’ll be many more from him this week.

A new Panama was snapped up by yours truly for this week, and the linen shirts, strides and light colours including the beiges have been washed and ironed – no cords at Goodwood!  I’m hoping it will be no rain macs, either, but there are threats of showers on Wednesday.

9/1 Galileo Gold To Win Sussex Stakes!
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The Qatar Sussex Stakes should be a fabulous race. The big three do battle once more - Galileo Gold, The Gurkha and Awtaad - and Ribchester cannot be ignored.

But, before that, let’s focus on finding some winners on day one.

Balmoral Castle, who runs in the Matchbook Betting Exchange Stakes has chalked up four wins from six starts at Goodwood and Jonathan Portman, is trainer, scooped the Weatherbys Super Sprint recently.

Boynton has to go through the process of reeling in War Decree again in the Qatar Vintage Stakes, having nailed that rival at Newmarket.  Charlie Appleby’s record with two-year-olds has stuck fast above 33% and this one appeared to have much move to give last time.

Dutch Connection has run in five Group Ones to date. He was second in the Qatar Lennox Stakes 12 months ago but conditions will be much more to his liking this time.  He was a solid second in the Summer Mile at Ascot, no doubt putting himself spot on.

The race is full of pace, with stable companions Home Of The Brave and Gifted Master bound to leave nothing in the conserved energy locker.  That could suit Buckstay and Markaz.  

Shore Step was a fine fourth in last year’s Stewards’ Sprint and hasn’t disgraced himself since, finishing fourth when trying to lead all the way at Ascot in May. He contests the Weatherbys Private Bank Stakes (Handicap).

If all that fails the nap is the strawberries on offer at the end of the meeting and I’m off to the Lord’s Taverners XI v Racing XI cricket match at Goodwood House. Oli Bell represents Racing UK in the Racing XI, so here’s hoping he replicates Joe Root’s recent exploits. No pressure Oli!

Betbright Racing

Tanya Stevenson’s Day One Goodwood tips

Goodwood 3.10 Dutch Connection

Goodwood 4.20 Shore Step

Tanya Stevenson’s Goodwood pointers

2.00 Matchbook Betting Exchange Stakes (Handicap)

Balmoral Castle has won four of his six races at Goodwood

Mount Logan last year was the first winning favourite since Supply And Demand in 1998

The last horse older than five to win was Knock Knock in 1992. He was seven

Mark Johnston has won the race four times in the last ten years

Sir Michael Stoute has had one winner from his last eight runners in the race, but three beaten favourites – today Mutamakkin

Seven of the last ten winners have been drawn in double-figure stalls

Only three of the last ten had won on their most recent run

Six of the last ten winners had run at Royal Ascot en route

2.35 Qatar Vintage Stakes

Six of the last ten favourites have won (26 of 41 favourites have won in total)

The last ten winners were 6-1 or shorter - all from the first three in the betting

Six of the last ten winners had run at Royal Ascot (four from the Coventry Stakes)

Eight of the last ten won on the racecourse debut

Nine of the last ten winners had run at least twice prior

Three of the last six winners had run in the Superlative Stakes at Newmarket

The last four winners went on to Group 1 success. Olympic Glory won four, Toormore won one, Highland Reel has since won three including Saturday’s King George. Galileo Gold hopes to add to his 2,000 Guineas and Royal Ascot victories in tomorrow’s Sussex Stakes

Ralph Beckett has had six winners from his last 13 runners he has two runners at Windsor Monday night

Charlie Appleby has a 37% strike rate with his two-year-olds this year. He runs Boynton.

3.10 Qatar Lennox Stakes

Five winning favourites since it was first run in 2000

Seven of the 16 runnings were won by three-year-olds

14 of the 16 winners were priced no bigger than 7-1

All of the last ten winners came from the first three in the betting

Nine of the last ten winners had run in a Group 1 in their career (eight of those ran in the Group 1 that season)

Eight of the last ten winners had taken in Royal Ascot en route

Only two of the last ten winners won on their most recent start.

Only three of the last six three-year-old winners had taken in the 2000 Guineas, the others all ran in the French 2,000 Guineas

3.45 Better Odds With Matchbook Summer Stakes (Handicap)

Seven of the ten winners came from the first three in the betting

Eight of the last ten winners had previously won over at least a mile and a half

Luca Cumani has won the race three times

Only three of the last ten winners had run at Royal Ascot earlier in the season

Six of the last seven winners were drawn ten or higher

Eight of the last ten winners were aged four or five