Nakeeta can power home in the Plate
As I ventured to across London’s transport system on Friday it was amidst a sombre atmosphere and a mood of confusion. There was no real grasp of the historic, monumental and, as I’ve heard Brexit describe it, seismic ramifications that lay before us all.
It’s the uncertainty, it’s the unknown and it’s the what now? As has become apparent, it was fine lobbying to leave Europe, but had anyone thought what next? Was it that they thought it wouldn’t happen? That the plaudits received with a narrow defeat would have been sufficient?
Or was this simply a case of the ‘Remain’ and all the ‘expert’ onlookers presuming the opinion of the general populus rather than actually going out and canvassing the thoughts of those outside London!
It’s a similarity which racing ought to acknowledge: the customer is key and their opinion and feelings should not only be heard, but listened to and taken on board. Rather than offering them what they think they want.
And what for racing? There is much to digest and consider, but it is best not speculate. Events in Westminster need to settle, though I doubt racing will be high on the list of priorities of the new incumbents,.
Racing regularly provides proof that odds-on favourites can be beaten and bookmakers have built their businesses on the improbability of eventualities. So should this have been such a surprise? Much will unravel.
Time to concentrate on Newcastle and , this John Smith’s Northumberland Plate Day one run on Tapeta for the first time. I wonder whether any of the statistics below will be relevant, or whether horses will have to be placed more assertively. Is there any scope for hold-up horses?
I’m minded to stick with horses drawn low, with Arch Villain and Nakeeta interesting among them.
The former found a near-two year layoff no drawback when winning at Lingfield in January and then, for good measure, followed up with victory over two miles at the same course in February.
Rested since, he has experience of this race when eighth back in 2013 - only five lengths behind Tominator. From stall one he he should be able to grab a handy position.
Nakeeta was really unfortunate in the Chester Cup in May. He renews rivalry with quite a few from that race and could exact his revenge. He came into the race at Chester with form figures 2211, showed two miles won’t be a problem and no doubt there is a little improvement to come.
The Chipchase offers up the ideal opportunity for Buratino to return to winning ways. The 2,000 Guineas may have been two furlongs too far but his next run, when fourth in the Sandy Lane Stakes, has been franked by Quiet Reflection’s subsequent win in the Commonwealth Cup.
He was held up at Haydock and had to concede 6lb to Quiet Reflection on that occasion. Today conditions ought to be in his favour and he could make all.
Tanya Stevenson's Royal Ascot Saturday tips:
Newcastle 2.30 Buratino
Newcastle 3.40 Dannyday
Newcastle 4.15 Nakeeta
Tanya Stevenson's Royal Ascot Saturday pointers:
2.30 Newcastle - Betfred Chipchase Stakes
Josephine Gordon has teamed up with Gentlemen eight times, resulting in five wins
Jamie Spencer has ridden Mr Lupton on three occasions winning on him twice
Five of the last 11 favourites have won
Seven of the last 11 winners came from the first three in the betting
Five of the last seven took in Royal Ascot
2.45 Newmarket - Tangent Office Furniture Supporting The AHT Fred Archer Stakes
Seven of the last ten favourites finished in the first two
Three of the last five winners were making their seasonal debut
3.05 Newcastle - Betfred TV Handicap
Nine of the last ten winners were no older than six
3.20 Newmarket - Cambridge News Magazine Supporting The AHT Empress Stakes
Eight of the last ten winners came from the first three in the betting
Five of the last ten winners had taken in Royal Ascot
3.55 Newmarket - John Sunley Memorial Criterion Stakes
John Gosden is trying to win the Criterion for a record fifth time – Muwaary
Only one of the last ten favourites have won
Only one of the last ten winners have won on their most recent start
Six of the last seven winners had at least won a Group Two in their career
Eight of the last ten winners had run at least three times before in the season
4.15 Newcastle - John Smith's Northumberland Plate
Eight of the last ten winners raced no more than three times before that season
Horses deriving from stalls 4, 5, 6 & 7 over the last 12 years have accrued five wins, four seconds two thirds and three fourths. (14 of a possible 48 places)
In the last four years 61 five-year-olds have tried to win the Northumberland Plate. Only Angel Gabrial in 2014 and Quest For More last year have succeeded. Has the trend started to buck?
Five of the last ten winners had previously won over hurdles
Only Tominator out of the last ten winners had previously run in the Northumberland Plate, and he won it!
Only five winners in 20 years have carried over 8-12 to victory
Only three of the last ten favourites have won
Only one of the last ten winners were trained in Newmarket – 2007 Juniper Girl
Seven of the last ten winners finished in the first three on their most recent start
Eight of the last ten winners bypassed Royal Ascot
5.20 Curragh - Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby
Aidan O’Brien is attempting to land the Irish Derby for a 12th time. He has won eight of the last ten
Jack Hobbs in 2015 was the first British-trained winner since Balanchine in 1994
Eight of the last ten came from the first two in the betting