Tanya Stevenson
Tanya Stevenson's Racing UK Blog
Saturday 21st May 2016

Racing UK

Intercept the bookies at Haydock

Tanya Stevenson filled punters' pockets last week when tipping Lockinge second Euro Charline each-way at 20-1. See who she is backing on Saturday below. 

Punter issues:

First it was So Mi Dar out of the Investec Oaks. Then it was Fadillah before her Nottingham success on Tuesday. Then there was the announcement that there are 24 still left in the fillies’ Classic, which would allow the possibility of Aidan O’Brien having the first three home with ten of those entered.

Then on Friday we hear Galileo Gold is definitely not going to run in the Investec Derby before Minding is pitched in to Sunday’s Irish 1,000 Guineas.

I didn’t see that coming, nor did the ante-post market as it did not have the English 1,000 Guineas winner in the betting this week.  One prominent bookmaker is to pay out as if she wasn’t running provided you placed your bet before 9.30am on Friday.

First Vautour’s switch to the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham and now Minding. Where does that leave the health of ante-post betting?  Something, I’m sure, that will be on the agenda of the Horserace Bettors Forum on June 6. If you have any thoughts or any other issues don’t forget to check out the website.

I am ready to bang my drum at Haydock on Saturday. At present the Silver Bowl has 17 runners and for those coming through the turnstiles only a few will find bookmakers betting a quarter the first four!  In the main only a fifth will be available, and as for being able to bet on those terms resulting in better prices to be offered, it will be only in a very few cases.  Yet online, on the phone and in shops a quarter the first four is still the norm.  

Saturday’s bets:

Did you see how easily Almodovar won at Kempton on Wednesday? The reason I flag this up is that he is trained by David Lanigan, who is responsible for Interception at Haydock. It shows his string are on good terms and remember how good she was in the Wokingham Stakes at Royal Ascot last season. Despite the potential for rain I think she is the one to beat. 

A rain dance is being done in Michael Dods’ yard as his Mecca’s Angel appreciates a softer surface. She is the class act in the Temple Stakes and for an outsider I wouldn’t discount Kachy, who proved he was better over shorter at Chester.

There is too much to try to be across on Saturday but I think Shore Step will run well at York in the Titanbet.co.uk Spring Sprint. Trained by Mick Channon, the six-year-old gelding returned with a solid fourth at Ascot a couple of weeks ago so is one to keep an eye on. 

Bookie mergers:

The merger between Ladbrokes and Coral has been given the green light, providing they offload between 350 and 400 shops. 

I’m intrigued. The obvious solution is that the shops are bought by a competitor, and speaking to the two bookmakers on Friday they confirmed that a competitor, and not any other high street shops, must buy the real estate.

So how does this affect the customer? I foresee further shrinkage in price differential, but whatever happens I think that it will all unravel rather quickly.

Four hundred shops equates to about 4% of the retail industry, and their fate will be indication enough as to where the future of betting lies. The answer to that question I sense is already known.  Who will be the next to merge, or be taken over? There will be more, and I’m sure it won’t be long.

Tanya Stevenson's Saturday tips

3.40 Haydock Park: Interception at 2-1 with Sky Bet

3.50 York: Shore Step at 7-1 with Betbright and Bet Victor

4.10 Haydock Park: Mecca's Angel at 2-1 with bet365

Tanya Stevenson's Saturday pointers

3.05 Haydock Park - Silver Bowl Stakes

John Gosden has had 15 winners from his last 42 runners at Haydock 

Nine of the last ten winners came from the first three in the betting

Nine of the last ten winners had no more than two runs in the current season

Seven of the last ten winners of the Silver Bowl have won on either of their last two starts.

Eight of the last ten winners went on to run at Royal Ascot, in 2011 Sagramor won the Britannia Stakes

Seven of the last ten winners were drawn eight or lower 

Richard Fahey has won the race twice in the last ten years 

4.10 Haydock - Temple Stakes

Nunthorpe winners in the following season’s Temple Stakes

2010 SOLE POWER went on to win the 2011 Temple

2009 BORDERLESCOTT went on to be second in the 2010 Temple

2008 BORDERLESCOTT went on to be third in the 2009 Temple

The last three horses to win the King’s Stand Stakes and go on to win the following season’s Temple Stakes: 2004 The Tatling fifth in 2005 Temple, 2000 Nuclear Debate third in the 2001 Temple and 1991 Elbio fourth in 1992 Temple. Goldream tries on Saturday.

Seven of the last ten winners had had at least one run in the current season

Fleeting Spirit last filly to win the Temple Stakes back in 2008

The Temple Stakes has been run at Haydock since 2008 and five of the eight winners were drawn five or lower 

The six of the eight winners of theTemple Stakes run at Haydock were no older than five

Eight of the last 10 winners of the nomadic Temple Stakes have been in the first four in the betting including four favourites

Fourteen three-year-olds have tried to win the Temple Stakes over the last ten years two have prevailed 2008 Fleeting Spirit, 2014 Hot Streak – Kachy

5.40 Curragh - Irish 2000 Guineas

Nine of the last ten winners came from the first three in the betting, five of those were favourites

Air Force Blue is three from three at the Curragh

Air Force Blue is bidding to become the ninth horse to complete the Guineas double

Nine of the last ten winners had run in Newmarket’s 2000 Guineas

Aidan O’Brien has won the Irish 2000 Guineas ten times, nine of those winners had previously won at the course.

Aidan O’Brien is the only Irish trainer to have won the Irish 2000 Guineas in the last 16 years.