Tanya Stevenson
Tanya Stevenson's Racing UK Blog
Saturday 16th May 2015

Racing UK

Last year’s runner-up is no 25-1 chance

The congestion in our daily racing schedule came to a head this week when the start of the Dante Stakes, the race of the week or even the Flat season so far, was delayed.

I’m sure this issue back at British Horseracing Authority headquarters is all in hand, and in days gone by there may well have been a bit of picture-in-picture broadcasting in the betting shops, but for the sports funding model to work better such instances have to be put towards the top of the priorities list.  

Enough of the negativity, time to roll up the sleeves and get on with it as a fabulous day at Newbury is assured. The course has gone from strength to strength over the last year or so and is always worth a visit.  In what is their most valuable day’s racing, 18 runners in the Lockinge Stakes is a record.

It mean lots of horses at big prices, such as Tullius, who was second last year and is floating around at 25-1.

He has shown his wellbeing by winning at Doncaster and I feel he is always underestimated.  There was no harm in trying ten furlongs at Sandown, but he reverts back to a preferred mile.  Let’s not forget he was also fourth in the Queen Anne to Toronado, and fourth in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, never beaten further than two and a half lengths in all his three Group Ones. Of course I’d prefer if it was softer ground for him, and obviously so would his connections but I still think he is overpriced.  

With Sir Michael Stoute’s record of seven wins, five of which were for Integral’s owners Cheveley Park Stud, the mare has to be respected. She will receive a little interest from me.

10/1 Night of Thunder
to win the Lockinge Stakes
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I finally returned home late last night from the Knavesmire courtesy of roadworks and traffic jams. I am now kicking myself as had I thought a diversion to Trent Bridge could have been taken for the T20! But the form I’m in, by the time I arrived it would have started raining.  

I’m not at Newbury today but will be keeping abreast of the day’s action from home as I have lots of statistics and research to catch up on over the next few days before a sporting feast from midweek, which includes golf, cricket and racing, I can’t wait.

Enough for now. I’m off to try to find my form - perhaps it’s at the end of the garden with the fairies!

Tanya Stevenson's Saturday tip:

3.45 Newbury: Tullius each-way at 25-1 generally available

Night of Thunder to Place – 5/1
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Tanya Stevenson's Saturday pointers

3.45 Newbury - Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes:

Nine of the last ten winners came from the first two in the betting, six of which were favourites.

Sir Michael Stoute has won the race seven times.

Owners Cheveley Park Stud have won the race five times and today are teaming up with Sir Michael Stoute and Integral.

Thirteen of the last fourteen winners of the Bet365 Mile at Sandown to run in the Lockinge have been beaten. Custom Cut tries to improve that record.

Seven of the last ten winners of the Lockinge were making their seasonal debut. (Breton Rock,Master Carpenter, Night Of Thunder, Toormore, Yuften, Integral)

Sixteen of the last 19 winners of the Lockinge had won a Group One over a mile which leaves just Integral, Night Of Thunder and Trade Storm.

Aidan O’Brien has not won the Lockinge since 2003 and Hawk Wing. 

2.35 Newbury - Toronado Carnarvon Stakes:

Eight of the last ten years the winner has been drawn no higher than gate five.  In the remaining two years the winner was in stall seven and eight.

Eight of the last ten winners have come from the first two in the betting. 

Desert Force has won both his races at Newbury.

3.10 Newbury - Al Zubarah London Gold Cup:

It is a race Sir Michael Stoute targets with two wins, two seconds and two thirds in the last ten years.

Eight of the last ten winners carried 8st-10lbs or more to victory.

Eight of the last ten winners finished no worse than third on their most recent start.