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Captain's Blog - 27th April 2011

I must apologise for a dreadful selection yesterday which was heavily backed but ran poorly. I do not make a habit of tipping up short priced horses but when I do they always seem to get turned over, there is an important lesson there which I should have learn't years ago, but this game is really good at biting you on the proverbial when the proverbial should have been nowhere near the jaws of truth.

The 2000 Guineas looms large on the horizon now and I had a look at the race yesterday. Of course Frankel will be hard to beat and to be frank he will probably win but I could not back him. The enemy within is his over exuberance which up to now has been overcome by his raw ability. It may well be the case that he will win again even if he pulls hard, but at a short price I am not comfortable with backing him. I have had a look at the speed figures that all the competitors have produced so far in their careers to try and get a handle on the race, and here they are.

Alexander Pope 110
Broox 106
Casamento 114
Dubawi Gold 103
Frankel 122
Fury 103
Happy Day 71
Loving Spirit 108
Master of Hounds 111
Native Khan 95
Pathfork 115
Rerouted 101
Roderic O'Connor 116
Saamid 95
Slim Shadey 78

These figures tell us how fast these horse have been able to run so far. Being three year olds they could be capable of better. Pathfork is a strong traveller who just gets a mile and may have the speed to at least give Frankel something to thiunk about. Casamento is very interesting. He won the Racing Post Trophy in good style but there has to be some doubt that he will have the speed to bother Frankel. He is with the Mahmood Al Zarooni side of the Godolphin operation which is going well and for me this horse will be hard to keep out of the frame. Roderic O'Connor has already been turned over by Frankel at Ascot and should not be able to turn the form around given that he was slightly flattered to finish as close to Frankel as he did last year. I cannot see Native Khan being anywhere near good enough, he is too slow and he is my idea of a place lay in the race if that is your kind of thing.

All in all it is hard to see Frankel being beaten, but if he has an off day Casamento could be the one to take advantage. He is worth an each way poke if you want to get involved against the favourite. For me it will be a no bet race. My interest mainly confined to how Frankel will handle himself on his second start of the year, he will not bounce as he did not exert himself too much at Newbury, but will his head be in the right place and can Tom Queally keep the lid on him for long enough? Interesting stuff and it will all be played out on on Saturday.

We are heading to Suffolk today to visit an old mate of mine and celebrate his birthday. He has just moved into a new house and unfortunately has no internet access so there will be no blog tomorrow folks I am afraid, but I will be back on Friday with a Royal Wedding special for you all.

All the best.

Today's Selection

4:50 Ascot - Nelsons Bounty (each way 11/1 Bet365 )