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Tanya Stevenson

Tanya's Blog - Thursday 10th May 2012

The sun is out at Chester. I was beginning to wonder if we would ever feel the warmth of it again. If ever the ground needs drying out across the country it’s from now on. Every course is blighted by non-runners. There are four non-runners in the first already and tomorrow Sea Moon has defected from the Ormonde Stakes.

The car park in the centre of the course is now closed, which is a barometer on the softness of the ground. Tarmac or concrete is always best in these circumstances. Ladies Day today and many a stiletto heel is going to be stuck in the turf.

Pricewise has selected Absinthe in the 1.35pm but The Bells O Peover appeals to me. Okay he is the outsider of the remaining seven runners, but he has course specialist Franny Norton in the saddle and if given a positive front-running ride he can lead all the way. He has no stamina problems, he is suited to further and receives weight from most.

Wigmore Hall was always going to be a selection, one of my favourite horses in training. The globetrotter has landed in Chester and without question he is in a different league to his competitors. However there are so many things one has to contend with when backing him, will he like the ground, he has to concede weight and Jamie Spencer will have to time his waiting tactics perfectly.

Personally I would try something different and there’s no harm in giving him a front-running ride.

The MBNA Chester Vase is the first of a succession of Derby Trials this week, yet I sense the only one that really counts was the Qipco 2000 Guineas on Saturday. Perhaps these trials over the next few days will give us an idea about who is likely to come second to Camelot.

The press room has now quietened down a bit, having been a buzz of expectation and there is a sense of peace and tranquillity as the wi-fi which failed to work yesterday is up and running today.

Today's selections:

1.35 Chester: The Bells O Peover

2.05 Chester: Wigmore Hall


Tanya's Pointers

2.05pm Chester:
Six of the last 10 favourites have won
Nine of the last 10 winners have been aged four or five

2.35pm Chester:
John Oxx has had four winners from his last nine runners
Eight of the last 12 winners were drawn one or two
Three of the last five favourites have won
Aidan O’Brien has won three of the last five runnings
Aidan O’Brien has had five winners and a second from his last seven Chester runners

3.05pm Chester:
Seven of the last eight winners came from the first three in the betting

3.40pm Chester:
Michael Hills has ridden three winners and two placed horses from his last six rides in this race.


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