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Tanya's Blog - Thursday 11th October

Apologies regarding Hazy Tom yesterday. Connections must be really disappointed. I know the ground was a bit too lively for him, but I thought he would stick on to at least the last. I’m convinced there is a big race in him so let’s hope the ground comes in his favour soon. At least March saved face at Nottingham and obliged at 7-2.

At Ayr today Hello Stranger tackles his second handicap on only his third career start. He ran a competent second at Nottingham on his most recent run and against more experienced rivals I sense he could find himself leniently treated in the 4.10pm.

For very light liquidity Toby Tyler’s price was plummeting in Ayr’s 3.40 on the exchanges last night, which caught the eye. I see he is 6-1 this morning. Fieldgunner Kirkup had his fair share of monies queuing up but Micky Fenton’s mount receives a nice weight concession from the top weight.

Another who had a collection of exchange fans yesterday around 10pm was Amaze, who was trading just under 11-4 in the 4.40 at Ayr to give you a guide. These are just observations, which may or may not be worth following up as it gets closer to post time. But for today exploits I go for only one pick and that’s Hello Stranger.

I’ve been entrusted with writing the Cesarewitch essentials for the Morning Line this week. At least I’ve jotted down plenty of bullet points about the significance of the draw, best to finish in the first four on most recent start, weight carried doesn’t really matter, not a great race for favourites and suits those with some previous form over hurdles. I will finally script it once the decs are out and the draw is made. Countrywide Flame owes me nothing courtesy of an investment in the Triumph Hurdle, so there will be support for him out of loyalty, however Eagle Rock, Decoy, Beyond and others are coming into my thoughts, best to wait for the decs.

I have neen enjoying the Arrers as you’d expect, but it is just not the same without Sid Waddell. His eclectic mix of catchphrases and assured knowledge added to his instinct towards each player's mood, which carried you through each match on a sea of momentum. In some respects the exhaustion you felt was almost as if you’d stood at the oche yourself as a third competitor!

Justin Pipe is frustrating to watch so what he is to play against is probably not repeatable! Slow would be too speedy a description of his game, a tactic in itself as it puts hastier players such as Kevin Painter off their stride. So without Sid Waddell and the ability to fast-forward Kevin Pipe, for once I had to turn over from the darts.

Today's Selection:

4.10 Ayr Hello Stranger

Tanya's Pointers

Eight of the last ten favourites have won Exeter’s 2.20

Philip Hobbs has won Exeter’s 2.20 three times from his last four runners

Nigel Twiston-Davies has had seven winners and three seconds from his last 20 runners

Sam Twiston-Davies has had eight winners from his last 25 rides

Micheal Nolan has ridden Southway Star five times to four wins

Adam Wedge has a 50% strike rate at Exeter

David O’Meara has had five winners from his last 12 Ayr runners

Anthony Honeyball has had seven winners from his last 17 Worcester runners

Rachel Green has had seven winners from her last 17 Worcester rides