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Tanya Stevenson's Racing UK Blog |
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Tanya's Blog - Wednesday 21st August 2013
Having walked the Knavesmire I can see them winning the Ebor
A warm temperature with a gentle breeze greeted me as the car door opened in York’s press car-park just before I embarked on my own mini Ebor, yes I’m walked the Knavesmire on Tuesday.
I've been looking at the runners for Thursday and there’s much anticipation but first up Wednesday's action looks mouth-watering.
Al Kazeem v Toronado, or is there something else to spoil the party in the Juddmonte International down York’s never ending straight?
Trading Leather was an excellent second in the King George and I can see him gaining at least the runner-up spot. It is not a race I’ll play in but an intriguing one for the betting ring where they’ll take a view as the on-course boys and girls at York always do.
It’s a treat though we have an Irish Derby winner against Declaration Of War, the Queen Anne winner, the Sussex Stakes victor in Toronado and the winner of the Coral-Eclipse and Prince Of Wales’s Stakes in Al Kazeem.
Lest we forget Hillstar ran well when third behind Trading Leather in the King George. As I said not a race I’d play in, except for a small interest on Jim Bolger’s charge.
There is only one horse I really like at York on Wednesday and he runs in the Great Voltiguer. What a hullabaloo the Gordon Stakes at Glorious Goodwood turned out to be, the fall out to which was the general feeling that Excess Knowledge will gain revenge on Cap O’Rushes if they renew rivalry at Doncaster in the St Leger next month.
That may be the case but I think, or I hope, Secret Number will defeat them both, but for now just Cap O’Rushes and five others at York would do.
He was hampered at least twice at crucial stages of the race at Goodwood, not helped by the intricacies of the course itself, and the ground may not have suited. He proved he stayed.
Telescope’s connections are hoping the straws that they are grasping at work out and Secret Number could be looking rather big at 25-1 for the Ladbrokes St Leger. Get on now.
As York has yet to introduce standard terms it will be intriguing to find seek out just how the bookmakers bet on the big field handicaps. The 1.55 has 20 runners and no doubt I’ll need air, sea rescue to find a quarter the odds, but I’ll be disgusted to find a sixth! If you missed my piece on this subject closer to my heart you can read it here.
I’m going to pitch in with a speculative each-way on Long Awaited and in the Horseracing Writers and Photographers Association tipping competition I’m going to slot in Lady Lara in the Acomb, she may be a maiden but check out who she has finished behind.
As I walked around the course I envisaged one of Number Theory or Steps To Freedom doing the same on Saturday and winning the Ebor.
Tanya's Wednesday tip:
3.05 York Secret Number at 5-1 with bet365
Tanya's Pointers:
Since 1993 two Irish Derby winners have gone on to run in the Juddmonte International in the same season, 1997 Desert King 2nd, 2006 Dylan Thomas 2nd
Since 1993 ten Coral-Eclipse winners have come on to run in the Juddmonte International six have won, 2009 Sea The Stars, 2003 Falbrav, 2000 Giant’s Causeway, 1996 & 1995 Halling, 1994 Ezzoud.
Aidan O’Brien has had 27 runners in the Juddmonte International with three winners and three seconds. Aidan has had the favourite in the Juddmonte six times winning with three of them.
Eight of the last ten winners of the Juddmonte International have come from the first three in the betting, five of the last six winners were favourite.
Five of the last ten winners of the Juddmonte International had run in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot
Since 1993 three Sussex Stakes winners have come on to run in the Juddmonte International, 2012 Frankel won, 2000 Giant’s Causeway won, 1996 First Island 2nd.
Three of John Gosden’s last five horses to run in the Great Voltigeur have won 2007 Lucarno, 2008 Centennial, 2012 Thought Worthy
Sir Michael Stoute has won the Great Voltigeur six times, yet none of the six went on to win the St Leger.
Since Powerscourt won the Great Voltigeur for Aidan O’Brien in 2003, the trainer has had 13 runners in the race including two favourites (eight below 10-1) and all have been beaten
Nine of the last ten winners of the Acomb Stakes won on their most recent start
Six of the last eight winners of the Acomb came into the race unbeaten
Nine of the last ten winners came into the Acomb having finished no worse than third in their career
Nine of the last ten winners of the Acomb were priced no bigger 7-2 – five of them were favourites
General:
William Buick has won on nine of his last 15 rides for John Gosden. He rides Nichols Canyon in the Great Voltigeur.
York has never been Mark Johnston’s lucky course and 2013 is no different, his 23 runners at the Knavesmire have all been beaten.
Secret Asset has won two of his three races at York and runs in the 1.55.
Adrian Nicholls has ridden Tax Free 55 times for 13 wins, 8 seconds and 8 thirds, including York’s 1.55 last year.
