|Tuesday 21st January 2014|
The Basics of Successful Horse Racing Betting
Betting on the horses has been running out of steam lately, and there are a number of pretty solid reasons behind the loss of popularity of the vertical. In this day and age of instant online gratification, the average internet user simply cannot be bothered with anything even remotely intricate and deep, and betting on the horses is indeed a proposition which can be rather intimidating. While the concept is simple enough, becoming successful at it is an entirely different sort of undertaking. Here’s a brief rundown of what should – under normal circumstances – comprise a sort of basic philosophic background behind successful horse racing betting.
Most beginners will go for the favorites when win betting, which is an approach doomed to fail from the get-go. The return on the favorites is so minute, that it will never be able to beat the innate variance of the game. Favorites should indeed be considered, but not for wagering on them, but rather, for deciding whether to pass on the race entirely.
As a basic guideline: when there is more than one favorite in a race (these would be the horses lowest in odds near post-time), the race is obviously one that should be skipped. Finding a genuine, legitimate favorite is extremely important of course, but it only constitutes the first step of the recommended course of action. If there is indeed a legitimate favorite, the bettor needs to find at least another true contender, which offers much better odds than the fav.
The good news in this respect is that the majority of the races do indeed feature close finishes. Seldom are there true wire-to-wire winners, most of the races end in photo finishes. Logic dictates that if there’s a horse out there which has shown a desire to contend and the ability to do so in a previous race, it will be up there and it will contend and often, it will indeed win too, with much better odds than the favorite. The key to horse racing betting success is finding such horses and effectively exploiting them for profit.
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Statistically speaking, around 66% of races are won by non favorites, and when a 10-1 or 20-1 horse finishes just a nose or a head behind the 4-5 winner, it’s obvious that the quality-difference between the two isn’t all that daunting.
Adding all those numbers up and tossing in a bit of jockey error, a position issue, a pace-related problem, and things don’t look bad at all for the savvy bettor.
In order to be able to pull off the whole stunt though, the successful bettor has to be an astute handicapper, well and truly capable of spotting the favorite (although that’s not what he’s ultimately looking for), as well as an astute mathematician who understands the way the odds involved work.
The bottom line: wasting one’s bankroll on low-paying propositions is NOT the way to go, even if some say there is a “big overlay” on that proposition. One should feel perfectly comfortable not betting the clear favorite, despite this overlay some experts speak so highly of.