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Humphrey Bogart can act the part in the Derby
Occasions of the magnitude of Epsom’s Investec Derby are to be savoured, appreciated and enjoyed. Not a day to be blasé, this is a day zinging with prestige and kudos. Prepare to be thrilled and exhilarated.
Indeed last year I got to interview England cricketers Eoin Morgan and James Anderson!
The course is unique, with nuances and cambers like nowhere else - even the running rails cling on delicately to the undulations and runners have no choice to freewheel down and round Tattenham Corner. The horses ought to be equipped with spirit levels. The 12 furlongs are an ultimate test of not just a three-year-old, which is often bandied about, but any racehorse.
Fifteen times the Derby favourite has been priced at 7-2 or bigger since 1965 and on seven of those the jolly has been 9-2 or bigger, so this year’s renewal is far from unique!
The openness is something that may well have been overplayed. We have just been conditioned in recent years to expect the expected. It is about time for a result so that’s why I’m going to shorten the list from 16 to three with my main selection being around a pony in odds, not stature. Harzand, Algometer and Humphrey Bogart will be mixed up in forecasts.
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I first took to the equine Humphrey Bogart when he tried to run down So Mi Dar at the very venue he will try to find his way to a place amongst the immortals. He took to the course with ease, and showed his aptitude to bends and cambers when winning the Lingfield Derby Trial. It is apt then that the last winner of the Trial, High-Rise went on to win our Blue Riband at 20-1.
The majority of moves in the betting market across the last few days can be attributed to the 20+mm of rainfall which has eased the ground to the extent that soft appears in the description.
And if being honest, connections of both Harzand and Algometer did not initially intend for them to run at Epsom, but probably the Curragh and Chantilly were their chosen targets a few weeks ago. But as the race opened up and more recently the rain fell it gave the pair encouragement to run. Algometer scared Midterm at Sandown and has won well since, while Harzand won the Ballysax Stakes from Idaho with Moonlight Magic back in fifth.
I did fancy Ulysses after the Breakfast With The Stars event last year so instead of going around in circles my main bet will be on Sayana in the 2.35. The French challenger appears superior and has found the ideal opening. Outside of that I will be keeping a close eye on apprentice George Wood, who has three lively chances at Epsom, including enigmatic Humidor in the ‘Dash’.
Also keep half an eye on the Scoop6, which is now an attractive size.
The Investec Oaks on Friday served up a real treat and nerves were frayed if you were on Minding!
Hearts missed beats and many favourite backers had to be revived and convinced that, despite all the trouble on the inside, she still won. It was a result which was another confirmation that class will out in the end, and I wonder how much Aidan O’Brien and the team are ruing the fact they ran in the Oaks rather than the Derby.
Forgive me, everything is easy with hindsight, but at least we now have a champion, a filly that is in a different stratosphere, she is phenomenal.
There was a massive, buzzing, uplifting turnout at Epsom - as big a crowd that I’ve seen for many a year, and although the temperature could have been warmer the camaraderie was immense.
Tanya Stevenson's Saturday Derby Day tips:
2.35 Epsom: Sayana at 8-13 generally available
4.30 Epsom: Humphrey Bogart at 33-1 generally available
Tanya Stevenson's Saturday pointers:
4.30 Epsom: Investec Derby:
Since 1965 20 favourites have won
There have been 32 odds-on favourites and 18 have won
Since 1993 there have been 14 unbeaten horses who have been priced up favourite only four have won, Camelot, Motivator, Galileo & Golden Horn
Since 1993, 16 runnings have contained at least one horse who has been unbeaten, eight have gone on to win. (US Army Ranger)
Aidan O’Brien has had 27 horses run in the race 10-1 or under, five have won, three finished second and one third.
Aidan O’Brien is trying to win his sixth Derby
Eight of the nine horses that finished second or third in the Derby for Aidan O’Brien had finished no worse than third prior to Epsom
All of the nine horses to have finished second or third for Aidan O’Brien in the Derby had at least four runs prior to Epsom
Since 2000 eight winners had won at least one Group One prior to Epsom
Since 2000 11 winners had won at least one Group One or a Group Two prior to Epsom (Cloth Of Stars, Port Douglas and Wings Of Desire)
Since 2000 every winner with exception of Workforce had won at least a Group Three (in addition to above, Deauville, Harzand, Moonlight Magic & US Army Ranger)
Seven of the last ten winners had only been ridden by the same jockey in its career including in the Derby itself (Cloth Of Stars, Harzand, Massaat, Moonlight Magic, US Army Ranger)
Since 1999 every winner has been priced 7-1 or shorter
All of the last ten winners came from the first three in the betting
Eighteen of the last 21 winners won on their last start
Fifteen of the last 17 winners won two of their last three starts
Fifteen of the last 17 winners were no worse than second on their last two starts
Nine of the last 30 winners were drawn in stall ten (Port Douglas)
Workforce was the first Derby winner to be defeated in the Dante Stakes (Deauville)
2.00 Epsom - Investec Private Banking Stakes:
Sir Michael Stoute’s last six runners in the race have resulted in three winners
Six of the last nine winners had taken in a race at Sandown Park that season (High Grounds and Soldier In Action)
Eight of the last ten winners finished no worse than third on their most recent run
Nine of the last ten winners were drawn six or higher
Only two of the last ten favourites have obliged
2.35 Epsom - Princess Elizabeth Stakes:
Seven of the last ten winners came from the first two in the betting, five of them were favourites
Under its current status as a Group Three there has been only one three-year-old winner and that was Arabian Queen last year.
Six of the last ten winners were trained in Newmarket.
Eight of the last ten winners finished no worse than third on their most recent start
All of the last ten winners ran in at least a Listed race prior to Epsom
3.10 Epsom - Investec Coronation Cup:
Aidan O’Brien has won the Coronation Cup six times in the last ten years and seven times in total
Six favourites have won in the last ten years (and 16 in the last 30 years)
Eight of the last ten winners had won at least one Group One previously, six of those had won two or more Group Ones
Eight of the last ten winners of the Coronation Cup had finished no worse than second on their last start
3.45 Epsom - The Investec Dash:
Eight of the last ten winners have been no older than six
Twelve of the last 15 ‘Dash’ winners have been drawn in stall eight or higher
The favourite has won only once in the last ten years
Eight of the last ten winners either ran in the Dash the previous year or at the course in April
