Tanya Stevenson
Tanya Stevenson's Racing UK Blog
Saturday 11th January 2014
   
FOBTs and Sectionals - it’s been a big week!

I’ve put some statistics together below relating to heavy ground but fingers tightly crossed they might not be relevant as it appears the rain has finally relented - no doubt next week frost will be the next hazard for racing to tackle!

However there is a sprinkling of light rain forecast so the course might not totally dry out to soft or soft to heavy in places. 

A Saturday off from Channel 4 duties allows me to be the ultimate sport couch potato!  The is potential for much damage to my betting accounts as I like the look of so many horses over the three courses in certain handicaps, and all can be seen live on !

Filbert, who runs in the Download the New Racing UK iPad App Handicapwon well at Newbury recently, while Uncle Jimmy, who is in the Pertemps Qualifier at Warwick, hasn’t been seen since his respectable fourth at Cheltenham at the Open Meeting. Deep Trouble must have had plenty in hand to veer right across Sandown’s run-in and still win, so it will be intriguing to see what he gets up to at Kempton in the 3.50.  Earlier on the card it may be worth pitching in on Kaylif Aramis who performed admirably well in the Ladbroke at Ascot in December and runs in the Lanzarote Hurdle.

There is much debate over sectional timing, of course it is a good thing, but the data has to be assimilated and presented with clarity. Also a yardstick will need to be formed to how one sectional at one course can be translated to another course.

Having viewed tens of thousands of greyhound races and equating ratings through the winning times and their sectionals to the first bend, in my experience the hardest part was translating the form of a Sittingbourne greyhound to that of a Canterbury greyhound. Deciphering how long a Romford fast starter would maintain his lead over the bigger more sweeping bends of Hove was always tricky. All I can advise is expect the unexpected and specialise in one distance. Hopefully horses’ weights will be next. That too was so important in greyhound racing.

FOBTs are set to be a constant now with a general election on the horizon - hardly any legislation will go through in the lead-up to it. It’s a hard one for racing as there is a belief in some quarters that those who use the Fixed Odds Betting Terminals would instead pay closer interest to racing if they weren’t there. 

Judging Betting Shop Manager of the Year for many years now, the general consensus suggests those on the machines would not migrate to racing if the FOBTs were removed.  We are told that without them many betting shops would close.  Now that could be perceived as less exposure for our sport on the high street.  This is a changing world and the fastest growing means of betting is through phones and internet and those that don’t necessarily go into betting shops. 

I wonder what proportion of betting on racing is via the phones and internet in relation to that in the shops? If they are growing closer, in the future would that offset the loss of any closures? I doubt it at this stage, but as with all things I am intrigued to discover the findings of the investigation into FOBTs.  Perhaps it is something for the new Five Minute Forum

Mathematician Betting

It was a great platform to be part of a healthy debate, I got involved via email on some of the questions, and it dissected some pressing issues and perhaps developed some solutions for the industry!

The inevitable happened with my NFL teams, although by some miracle my New Orleans Saints scraped past the Philadelphia Eagles. I can’t exactly layoff when they are playing the favourites for the Superbowl in the Seattle Seahawks in Seattle. I'm in the 'there is a nothing to lose' position. 

My attention has been diverted to the PGA Tour, which is currently stationed in Hawaii so watching it live is proving difficult, but soon it will revert to more sociable hours.  I sense Jason Dufner, Webb Simpson and Jordan Speith could be collecting some more titles, while could Brandt Snedeker end up with a green jacket this year?

Tanya's Saturday Tips: 

2.15 Wetherby: Filbert at 5-1 with BetVictor

2.25 Warwick:  Uncle Jimmy at 8-1 with bet365

2.40 Kempton: Kaylif Aramis at 10-1 with bet365

3.50 Kempton: Deep Trouble at 4-1 with bet365

Tanya’s Saturday Pointers:

Betfred Classic Chase

Six of the last eight winners finished no worse than third on their most recent run

For six of the last eight winners had their most recent run either at Cheltenham or Newbury

Seven of the last eight winners had won over at least three miles

Heavy ground statistics in the Classic Chase:

Carruthers has run on heavy ground nine times winning five (1114P191P)

Hey Big Spender has run on heavy seven times failing to complete on four of those occasions (31FPP5P)

Emperor’s Choice has run six times on heavy ground winning three, second once and third once (321116)

Vesper Bell has run six times on heavy winning two, second three times and third once (122132)

Lanzarote Hurdle

The Lanzarote Hurdle has only been run over 2m 5f since 2007 and in that time five of the six winners had participated previously in either the Cheltenham or Aintree Festivals

The last five winners of the Lanzarote Hurdle were all a single-figure price.

Emma Lavelle and Leighton Aspell have teamed up for seven winners from 17 in the 2013-2014 season

Henry Daly is having a tremendous season with 26 winners so far. In 2012-2013 he only had 20, in 2011-2012 he had 26 and in 2010-2011 he only had eight

Dr Richard Newland has had three winners from his last four runners. In December as a whole he had a 33% strike rate six winners from 18 runners

Noel Fehily has had four winners from his last nine Kempton rides including the King George

Nick Williams has had four winners from his last ten runners

From his six runs at Kempton, Captain Chris has won three times, finished second once and third once

Ruby Walsh and Willie Mullins have a 37% strike rate when teaming up this season

Favourites have won five of the last seven runnings of 3.00 Warwick

The eight winners of 11.55 Kempton have all come from the first three in the betting

Nine of the last ten winners of 3.50 Kempton have been aged six

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