 |
Angus McNae's Racing UK Blog |
| Saturday 6th December 2014 | |
Time to Fry the bookmakers at the right time and the right place
I trust you have been enjoying the Betting Lab on . It has run for the last few weeks on a Wednesday evening and this week’s episode had the benefit of a true gambling expert in the form of Neil Channing.
He was fascinating to listen to and a couple of points that he made were particularly interesting.
Firstly he opined that choosing when to bet is as important as choosing what sport or race to bet on. To illustrate he cited a poker analogy. Do you want to walk into a casino and chase a big pot by joining a table in the early evening playing against some hugely experienced and talented players or do you go late in the evening and play for less money against a few drunk chancers who are on a night out? The answer is obvious.
When it comes to horseracing choosing your moment is just as important. It is going to be much harder to make money mid-week when you are shooting against professionals, computer bots and informed money.
By contrast if you look to get involved in evening meetings or, more pertinently, on a Saturday you will find that there is more money around and less of it is as informed as during the week.
Shamefully this is not something I had given much thought too, but it will be from now on.
12/1 Balder Success to win the Tingle Creek
+ Money Back If You Lose
Betfair
New Customer Exclusive
The 888sport Tingle Creek Chase day is always an exciting one. Last year I had a great day out at Sandown with my daughter, who enjoyed seeing Santa and watching a pantomime. This year I am working for in the studio and can hopefully back a few winners to pay for a pending trip to Hamley’s in London - a trip I have promised my daughter this year instead of Sandown.
The big race has lost some of its luster with Sprinter Sacre and Sire De Grugy on the missing list. It is, however, a competitive renewal.
Balder Succes and Gods Own are closely matched on their Haldon Gold Cup efforts. Dodging Bullets was disappointing on his return at Cheltenham. Somersby is hard to win with and Oscar Whisky makes mistakes. Surely we should be looking for a new shooter, a horse with greater potential than any of those mentioned and I think that horse is Vukovar.
 |
Trained by Harry Fry, this horse has loads of scope. He was really impressive when he thrashed Open Hearted at Newbury last season. After that he went to Cheltenham and was well beaten in the JLT Novices’ Chase.
That race was over two and a half miles on decent ground and that is not what Vukovar wants. For me he is a soft ground two miler and has his perfect conditions today.
That defeat at Cheltenham may in part also have been down to a lack of experience on his part as it was only his third chasing start. He is clearly an exciting prospect and with doubts about most of his rivals he could make his mark today. I recommend backing him each way at the 8-1 that is currently available.
5 Places in the Becher Chase
Day of the race only. Standard terms apply
When most right-minded people are watching a film or enjoying a meal I will be turning to the 8.45 at Wolverhampton, where Baltic Prince will surely win again completing a hat-trick of wins.
He was impressive on Wednesday night at Kempton making all for a facile win and off top weight. He can bully his rivals into submission.
I think he will make all and win easily. I know it's not a glamorous Saturday afternoon high-profile wager, but it's not all about having fun. As a very shrewd punter once said to me there is no such thing as a fun bet because losing is not fun.
Angus McNae’s Saturday tips:
3.00 Sandown: Vukovar each-way 7-1 with Betfair Sportsbook, BetVictor and Ladbrokes
8.45 Wolverhampton: Baltic Prince at 2-1 with bet365
