2022 Randox Grand National
Stats & Trends
The Randox Health Grand National is simply the biggest and most famous horse race in the world. Run at Aintree racecourse each year in early April the gruelling contest is run over a trip of 4 1/2 miles with the first ever winner being the appropriately-named Lottery.
With 40 runners to go through one popular angle on whittling down the field is to use some key trends - apply these to the 2022 Grand National runners and you'll at least build up a profile of the type of horse it takes to win the Liverpool marathon.
Did you know that since 1978 only two horses have won carrying more than 11-5 in weight, while the last 7 year-old to win the race was in 1940?!
At GEEGEEZ they look back at past winners and highlights the key betting trends ahead of the 2022 Aintree Grand National - this year run on Saturday 9th April - and sponsored by Randox Health.
Ok, at first glance with 40 runners contesting 30 fences for 4 1/4 miles the Aintree Grand National does have quite a scary look to it when it comes to trying to hunt down the winner – however, despite those daunting factors you can often find the Grand National winner by following a few simple tips and trends.
Positive Grand National Pointers……………….
- Horses that had won or finished placed in a National race of any description
- Look for horses that raced over hurdles at some point earlier that season
- Horses that like to be ridden up with the pace in their races often do well (avoid horses that like to be held up)
- Irish-trained horses have a great recent record in the Grand National (won 4 of the last 6)
- Irish-bred horses have the best recent Grand National record
- Look for horses that finished unplaced in the previous season’s Grand National – they often do well
- Horses that have won over 3miles in the past is virtual ‘must-have’
Negative Grand National Pointers…………………
- Horses aged 13 or older don’t have a great Grand National winning record – you have to go back to 1923!
- Runners that have fallen or unseated three or more times often don’t run well
- Past Grand National winners and previous Grand National placed horses have bad returning records
- Horses that had last raced over 56 days ago often don’t run well
- Runners that had hard races at the Cheltenham Festival, run the previous month, don’t fare well, although Tiger Roll kicked this trend into touch again in 2019.
Weight Watchers: Some recent winners have carried 11st (or more) to victory, but looking back at recent trends make this weight your cut-off point. If you look back over the winners we’ve only seen the mighty Red Rum (1974 & 1977) and Many Clouds (2015) carry 11-8 or more – 23 of the last 30 winners carried 10-12 or less! Tiger Roll won with 10st 13lbs in 2019, but defied the weight stat to win with 11st 5lbs in 2019.
Staying Power: Stamina is an absolute must when scanning down the entries. Year-after-year there are always plenty of hype horses that are certainly talented, but the big question surrounding their chance is will they stay the gruelling 4m 1/4f trip? 27 of the last 30 winners had won over 3m+ in the past, but it's worth noting that last year's winner - Minella Times - had only won over 2m6f before heading to National glory.
Age Concern: Experience is a vital attribute when looking back at past Grand National winners with horses aged 9 years-old or OLDER certainly the ones to focus on. You have to go back to 1940 (Bogskar) to find the last 7 year-old to grab the Merseyside marathon! So, don’t be too put off if your fancy is in their twilight years – but not a teenager - 25 of the last 30 winners were aged 9 or older, but it is worth pointing out 4 of the last 6 winners were 8 year-olds, suggesting there might be a bit of a turning point in this age stat.
Luck Of The Irish: Our friends from the across the Irish Sea have raided these shores to win the Aintree Grand National many times in recent years, so certainly take a second glance at any of their runners. 7 of the last 16 winners came from Irish-based stables, including 4 of the last 5.
Fencing Master: With thirty of the most unique obstacles in horse racing to contend with then having previous form over the tricky Grand National fences can be a huge advantage. Many recent Grand National winners had previously been tried over these Grand National-style fences in the past. The Topham Chase and Becher Chase - or a previous run in the big race itself – are the main races that are staged at Aintree racecourse over the same Grand National-style fences to look back at. Backed-up again in 2019 with Tiger Roll, who also won in 2018 and experienced the fences, winning again.
Who’s Your Favourite: The betting on the Grand National always picks up pace in the weeks building up to the big day, but on the Saturday itself, when the once-a-year punters hit the high streets, this is when the betting market really kicks into gear. It’s also worth noting that the weights for the Grand National are issued well in advance (February each year), so with some horses often running well after they’ve been given their allocated weight and before the race then this can also impact the ante post Grand National betting. 6 of the last 30 runnings have been won by the favourite (20%), while 16 of the last 30 (53%) market leaders were placed (top 4 finish)!
Market Toppers: We’ve already talked about the actual favourite, but this Grand National trend can be taken a bit further when you actually drill down into recent runnings. In fact, most winners in recent years started in the first eight of the Grand National betting market – indicating that despite the Venetia Williams-trained, Mon Mome, popping-up at 100/1 in 2009, that punters generally tend to get this race right. 11 of the last 18 winners came from the top 8 in the betting market – backed up in 2018 with Tiger Roll winning at 10/1 (joint second favourite), plus again in 2019 with Tiger Roll winning as the 4/1 favourite. While the 2021 winner - Minella Times - was 11/1 and another in the top 8 in the betting.
Fitness First: Probably the biggest trend in recent years, and a really easy way to whittle the 40 strong field down in one easy swoop, is just check how many days ago your fancy last ran. The majority of the recent Grand National winners had their previous race no more than 48 days prior to the big day. While if you want to drill this trend down a bit further than you’ll notice that a large amount of recent winners of the Grand National actually raced less than 40 days prior to landing the greatest steeplechase in the world. 28 of the last 30 winners ran no more than 55 days ago, while 23 of the last 30 raced no more than 34 days ago! That said, 12 months ago, Minella Times, did defy this trend after winning the National off a 62-day break.