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Tanya Stevenson's Racing UK Blog |
| Saturday 12th July 2014 |
Godolphin can get me out of trouble at Ascot
My form has gone on vacation and all that’s left in my pocket is a bit of fluff and a few frayed ends of cotton!
What a time to disappear with so much racing on and ’s first triple-header presentation from Newmarket, Ascot and York. The best of luck to all concerned.
Such congestion of races on the day makes it virtually impossible to keep track of what is happening and good things are always missed.
Many, even myself, are guilty of focusing in on this as the only day such clashes happen, but there are plenty of other days when top-class courses run on the same day. With the courses getting huge attendances it’s hard to come up with an ideal solution.
Newmarket has now absorbed at least 31mm of rain, and it finally stopped around 10am on Friday morning, and at 5.30pm the humidity was kicking in with temperatures rising.
Fair play to all the odds compilers who earned there corn on Friday after the raft of non-runners across the country which changed the complexion of virtually every race.
Three defectors from the Bunbury Cup already, Sirius Prospect, Don’t Bother Me and Redvers. I was torn between Field Of Dream retaining his crown and Ayaar who is better off at the weights with him. In the end I’ve gone for Frankie Dettori’s mount.
Talking of Dettori, I can’t believe how excited I am at the prospect of seeing NFL superstar Wes Welker, who owns the Italian’s Darley July Cup mount Undrafted!
I’m reliving my childhood and liken it to Christmas Eve. NFL is a sport I’ve followed virtually all my life and Welker is a player I’ve backed to be first touchdown scorer in many a match - even in this year’s Superbowl.
And in a quirky twist of fate he is going to be at Newmarket racecourse on Saturday.
As a wide receiver he has been the go-to man for two of the best quarterbacks in the business, Tom Brady when he was a New England Patriot and more recently Peyton Manning the great No18.
Like website editor Geoffrey Riddle on Thursday, I watched Undrafted gallop on Friday morning with Frankie Dettori on board. The ground will have dried out no end come post time with Saturday’s with temperatures expected to hit 25 degrees.
Who is going to win the race? Well I like Spanish raider Noozhoh Canarias. He ran so well in the 2000 Guineas and was beaten only four lengths. I think he may have the natural speed to catch out most, if not all, of his rivals and huge respect has to be paid to Slade Power.
Boylesports are paying 1/4 odds a place
on ALL races at Newmarket this afternoon
In the John Smith’s Cup its John Quinn’s Tahira for me, with a saver on Chancery. This is mainly due to his eye-catching run on seasonal reappearance when seventh and quietly backed at York. Jockey Philip Makin sounded pretty confident in his interview on Racing UK, too.
Then there is a huge dose of forgiveness to be given out to on Long John, who, for whatever reason, didn’t run his race in the UAE Derby at Meydan in March. Yet if he reproduces the form that won him the UAE 2000 Guineas he must be the one to beat in Ascot’s Summer Mile at 2.30.
Tomorrow night I’m going to sit back, relax and enjoy what hopefully will be a memorable World Cup final. I’m on Colombia’s James Rodriguez to be top scorer so the nerves are jangling with many still in with a shout of overtaking him.
Tanya Stevenson’s Saturday tips:
2.30 Ascot: Long John at 5-1 with SkyBet
3.15 Newmarket: Ayaar at 8-1 with bet365 and SkyBet
Tanya Stevenson’s Saturday pointers:
Ascot:
2.05 Newmarket:
Seven of the last ten winners of Newmarket’s 2.05 have carried at least 9-1
Eight of the last ten winners have had at least five career starts
Summer Mile:
Ascot’s Summer Mile has been run seven times; three of the winners had run at Royal Ascot and all three had run in the Queen Anne Stakes.
Newmarket:
Superlative Stakes:
Seven of the last ten winners of the Superlative Stakes came from the first three in the betting
Seven of the last ten winners had won on their most recent run
Eight of the last ten winners had run no more than twice
Only three of the last ten winners of the Superlative Stakes had taken in Royal Ascot
Only one of the last ten favourites has won the Bunbury Cup (2010 St Moritz)
Six of the last nine winners (and all of the last four) had run in the Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot
Only three of the last ten winners of the Bunbury Cup had run in the race previously
Four of the last ten winners of the Bunbury Cup had run in the Lincoln earlier in the season
Eight of the last ten winners of the Bunbury Cup were no better than fifth in the betting.
Since 1968 the only winner has been aged older than five (2006 Les Arcs)
Eight of the last ten winners of the July Cup were drawn eight or lower
The last five King’s Stand Stakes winners to run in the July Cup have all been beaten (Sole Power)
Three of the last seven Diamond Jubilee winners to run in the July Cup have won (2013 Lethal Force, 2010 Starspangledbanner, 2006 Les Arcs) Slade Power bids to join the list.
Eight of the last ten winners had run in a Group One at Royal Ascot
Only one of the last ten winners had a previous run in a July Cup – 2008 Marchand D’Or (Sole Power and Slade Power ran in last year's race)
1.40 York:
Kieren Fallon has ridden Navajo Chief seven times to three wins and a third
Seven of the last ten winners of York’s 1.40 were drawn seven or lower
William Haggas has won two of the last three John Smith’s Cups, and had the 1-2 last year with Danchai beating Stencive.
Eight of the last ten winners of the John Smith’s Cup were drawn in stall 12 or higher. From 1994 to 2003, however, all the winners came from stall nine or lower!!
Since 1985 all the winners of the John Smith’s Cup have been aged five or younger
All those successful in the John Smith’s Cup since 2006 have carried 8st-12lbs or less
Six of the last seven winners of the John Smith’s Cup were ridden by an apprentice
There has been three winning favourites of the John Smith’s Cup in the last 20 years
Eighteen of the last 20 winners of the John Smith’s Cup had run no more than four times prior that season (2008 Flying Clarets & 1994 Cezanne had run five times prior)
Only five of the last 20 winners of the John Smith’s Cup had gone via Royal Ascot that season
Eight of the last ten winners of the John Smith’s Cup finished in the first four last time out
