Angus McNae's Racing UK Blog
|Saturday 24th May 2014|
It is not too often in life that I get excited.
Essentially I think too much to allow my emotions to run free.
That said sometimes when it comes to punting you need to get excited because with that excitement comes confidence and as any serious punter will tell you, confidence is a key ingredient to success.
So here goes I really fancy Bilimbi in the Betfred Mobile Casino Silver Bowl Stakes at Haydock.
His win at Musselburgh last month was achieved in a fast time, which in comparison to other times that day at the track stands up to the closest scrutiny.
The win was a cosy one from two decent types in second and third. Add to this the fact that he has had only four starts in his career you have a horse who can improve dramatically.
He has won with cut in the ground and on decent ground and the booking of Ryan Moore can be nothing but a plus.
Add to this his plum number one draw, and I’m brimming with confidence. Of course this is a seriously classy and competitive race - but this horse could just be a Group horse in a handicap off a mark of 90. I have backed many horses who have had less solid credentials and have paid for my folly, but I really believe this horse represents a tremendous wager.
I am not going to have a go at the Scoop 6 this weekend. It is too hard, and too expensive. If you could do 25p lines, I may be tempted, but to do a big perm when each line is £2 you can soon end up spending a small fortune and with the results that we have seen over the last few weeks some small fortunes have been done in cold blood.
On a more positive note if you are having a go think of it as if you are doing the lottery with lots of information in front of you about which numbers are going to be drawn out of the hat and all you have to do is interpret that information. Remember, it could be you!
The American racing scene has been set alight by the Triple Crown bid of California Chrome. All study of the form book tells me that he cannot win the Belmont Stakes in a fortnight.
He is surely a speed horse who was always at his best sprinting around Santa Anita on a rock hard surface.
He is surely not a deep sand grinder who stays a mile and a half; the type that you need to win the Belmont.
He can be keen in his races and that will not help his cause, either, and there are some likely staying types in the race.
This logic makes me want to lay him at a short price, much as Ladbrokes seem to want to do, and if I do surely I will collect.
But where confidence is so important in punditry I have a nagging feeling somewhere inside me that this horse is going to do it. I cannot explain why, it is just a gut feeling.
When I tipped this horse to win the Kentucky Derby in this column I said American horseracing was crying out for a hero and this horse could be just that. He has a real chance to not only secure hero status, but to also join an elite group. A Triple Crown winner would be great for the sport.
Let's hope it's him and let's hope it's you when it comes to the Scoop 6. If all else fails there is always Bilimbi.
Angus McNae’s Saturday tip:
3.45 Haydock: Bilimbi at 9-2 with BetVictor