Angus McNae's Racing UK Blog
|Friday 6th June 2014|
Which filly can run faster than her rivals over 12 furlongs at Epsom today?
That is the fundamental question we should all be asking ourselves. We need not worry with collateral form study late into the night that will simply drive you nuts and make you confused and tired - let's look at what should be the fundamentals of form study - which should always be basic speed allied to pedigree analysis.
With these ideas in mind let me run you through the Investec Oaks field with some honesty.
Amazing Maria - what is she doing in the race? She will surely not stay? She cannot run fast enough at seven furlongs to win a Group One race and is not bred to stay 12 furlongs. Baffling!
Anipa - a well-ridden winner of the Cheshire Oaks, but surely flattered by that and even with everything in her favour she did not run that fast.
Dazzling - surely a pacemaker for Marvellous? Her pedigree suggests she will struggle to get home over 12 furlongs.
Honor Bound - easy ground and a first time hood may help but has not shown she can run fast enough, even in winning the Lingfield Oaks trial, to get involved.
Ihtimal - useful filly who was third in the 1000 Guineas and posted a big figure in doing, so but whilst she can run fast enough to get involved her pedigree suggests she cannot run fast enough for long enough to see out 12 furlongs.
Inchila - she will stay and ran well at Newbury last time. That was a fast time effort under a poor ride. Place claims at a big price.
Island Remede - not good enough and will not stay.
Lily Rules - another with serious stamina doubts to say nothing of an inability to run fast enough.
Marsh Daisy - if I could be sure she would stay I would be very keen on her. She won in a fast time at Goodwood last time. Her pedigree is mixed, thus stamina could be a big worry.
Marvellous - a classy pedigree and the winner of the Irish 1000 Guineas. The fastest horse in the race and the distaff side of the pedigree suggests she will stay. If that is the case this race is over.
Momentus - improving but cannot run fast enough.
Palace - nicely bred, will stay, could not run as fast enough as Marvellous in the Irish 1000 Guineas.
Regardez - plenty to find with with Madame Chiang from the Musidora. Will stay but not fast enough.
Taghrooda - impressive Pretty Polly win in a reasonable time. Will stay and could well improve at the trip, but a bit short in the market given her achievements thus far.
Tarfasha - shrewd yard and this filly is legitimate here both in terms of her pedigree and ability. Wants decent ground.
Volume - fast time win from the front at Newbury and plenty of stamina in pedigree gives her a chance of a place here. Similar chance on figures to Madame Chiang.
There are a few thoughts on the runners, but thoughts are meaningless without conclusions, so here is my shortlist.
Marvellous; Tarfasha; Madame Chiang; Volume; Marsh Daisy
In terms of a single bet I will be backing Madame Chiang each-way. The last three winners of this race have been returned at 20-1 and she fits the bill at a decent price.
Angus McNae's Friday tip: