Angus McNae
Angus McNae's Racing UK Blog
Sunday 16th November 2014

Racing UK

Top weight will not be burden enough for this Henderson horse

Chesterfield and Intransigent gave us a couple of nice winners here on the blog yesterday at 8-1 and 11-4.

It would have been an even better day if Johns Spirit had won the BetVictor Gold Cup at 11-1, but at least in finishing second, we bagged the each-way money.

Before I give you my selections for today, here is something of a quick view assessment of all of yesterday's winners. 

12.40 Cheltenham - Chesterfield:

Lightly-raced and should be unbeaten in four runs.

He may be better on decent ground, but winning this off a mark of 123 may represent a zenith for this season. Life will get tougher for him.

1.15 Cheltenham - Kings Palace:

Good hurdler who jumps fences brilliantly. Exuberant rather than efficient, but an exciting prospect going forward. Legitimate RSA candidate.

1.50 Cheltenham - Sam Winner:

A strong stayer who was well handled by the improving Sam Twiston-Davies.

The Grand National is a legitimate target either this season or next. At seven years of age he has time on his side. 

2.30 Cheltenham - Caid Du Berlais:

A strong renewal of the Paddy Power Gold Cup and another for Sam Twiston-Davies.

As Paul Nicholls told , this was probably his Gold Cup, but there is a belief that better ground may be a plus going forward so there may be more to come. 

3.00 Cheltenham - Katkeau:

Over 600 days off the course was no bar to success for this horse who was sensibly ridden to grab the better ground near the stands' rail.

The runner-up Big Easy challenged wide of that rail and that had some bearing on the result. Neither look likely candidates for the Ladbrokes World Hurdle.

3.35 Cheltenham - Golden Doyen:

Really had to fight to beat a nice newcomer in the shape of Hargam.

Looks like a strong candidate for the JCB Triumph Hurdle given that it will be run on the New Course, which will provide a stiffer test of stamina which is just what this horse wants. 

4.05 Cheltenham - Bitofapuzzle:

Gave weight away all round and benefited from a fine front running ride from Noel Fehily. She is clearly a useful mare.

Daring Carlotta, who was third, would have gone much closer with a more pace savvy ride and may turn out to be the best of these eventually.

As for today I am going into the Cheltenham meeting treble-handed.

First up I like Jayo Time in the opener at 1.00pm.

He should be backed each-way at 7-1.

He hails from the remarkable yard of Dr Richard Newland and won with any amount in hand last time up at Market Rasen.

He was equally impressive the time before at Wincanton and under a seven pound penalty and he looks like something to bet on in the opener. 

Secondly I am going to row in with Vaniteux in the Greatwood Hurdle at 3.15.

This horse is top weight and this is the class act in the race.

His third in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle in March is the best bit of form on offer in the race by some way.

That run shows that he handles Cheltenham well and, while he is only 4-1 in the market, that seems like a very fair price given the strength of the opposition.

Indeed I do not believe it is a strong Greatwood Hurdle with possibly the exception of Clondaw Warrior, who may be very well treated, but he lacks the class of Vaniteux, who can give the weight away and provide Barry Geraghty with another high-profile winner. 

My final selection is Commissioned in the Sky Bet Supreme Trial Novices' Hurdle. This horse can continue the good form of the John Ferguson yard.

He won here at Cheltenham by eight lengths in October and then went on to win easily at Kempton.

He was a useful stayer on the Flat and has certainly translated that ability to the hurdling game and there could well be more to come.

At 7-2 he seems to be fairly priced. Fehily on board is a big plus.

Mathematician Betting

Angus McNae's Sunday tips:

1.00 Cheltenham - Jayo Time at 8-1 with Paddy Power

1.35 Cheltenham: Commissioned at 9-2 with Ladbrokes

3.15 Cheltenham: Vaniteux at 9-2 with Paddy Power