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Tanya Stevenson's Racing UK Blog |
| Saturday 23rd August 2014 |
Sir Michael can send a Rocket down the Knavesmire
How did he win from there? Astounding. Sole Power and Richard Hughes had us all heart in our mouths at the late flourish. Yet he only touched 11-1 in-running on Betfair, and at the end he had the luxury of a half a length margin over his rivals.
Acceleration personified, while all his rivals were at full stretch around him, he was travelling on the bridle desperate for a way through. It was phenomenal.
It was a swift killer blow for bookmakers, who haemorrhaged money as infinite queues of happy and relieved customers stood in front of their pitches waiting to collect. Eight favourites at the meeting so far with another six races to go, that’s more than the previous five years.
Irish challengers have taken the big three Group Ones and Pale Mimosa made it four wins when landing the Lonsdale Cup. Edward Lynam has now had nine runners on these shores for six winners, a second and a third.
There was the opportunity to have a real long amble around the betting ring on Friday, including standing where Dad and I use to stand many years ago. When canvassing the layers on various issues they all reported a huge drop in turnover at the meeting, giving cause to give closer scrutiny to the expenses and the viability of their attendance.
Simple sums show that daily, without the travel and sundries, it is £250 to stand up on each of the four days, whereas a normal Saturday meeting at York is over £100 cheaper. That cost is the same if you are in pitch one or 91 and if you are in the third row or near the two-furlong marker it figures less customers are going to filter through.
On Friday the betting ring was very fragile and jumpy. As soon as a bet was struck the price shortened yet nothing lengthened.
Then a few punters approached me grumbling about the each-way terms - most on-course now bet a fifth in those 16-runner handicaps. It is disappointing when there is barely 2% of them throughout the year! We have the Ebor and there’ll be more of the same excuses wheeled out.
So on to the Ebor. Sir Mark Prescott trains the favourite Pallasator, and he has given punters plenty to cheer about over the years and supporters of Pallasator had to have enjoyed Glenard’s victory at the course on Friday, for he had finished third to Pallasator at Ascot.
As for dangers there are plenty, little is known about Sir Walter Scott yet he seems to be the one moving in the right direction in the betting. His fifth to Amaralah at Newbury is something to build on and his trainer Luca Cumani is no stranger to winning an Ebor.
Lady Cecil won it last year and arguably has stronger chances this time round with Retirement Plan and Mighty Yar.
Last year’s favourite Ted Veale returns for another crack and seeing as Ireland has nabbed four of our prizes why not make it five? I like Wadi Al Hattawi due to his hard luck story behind Arab Spring - I desperately need a happy ever after!
Don’t forget the Scoop6 could make it a fairytale for us all and the Ebor is leg four, Intrinsic could be the answer in leg five, Newmarket’s 3.55. Good luck.
Tanya Stevenson’s Saturday tips:
2.40 York: Rocket Ship at 12-1 with SkyBet
3.55 Newmarket: Intrinsic at 4-1
Tanya Stevenson’s Saturday pointers:
2.05 York - Betfred Play Today's 2Million+ Scoop6 Strensall Stakes:
Four of the last nine favourites have won
Nine of the last ten winners of the Strensall Stakes came from the first two in the betting
Only one of the last ten winners of the Strensall Stakes was priced in double figures
2.40 YorK - Betfred Melrose Handicap:
The last eight winners had won over at least 12 furlongs prior
All of the last nine winners came from the first five in the betting and none were priced bigger than 9-1
3.15 York - Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Gimcrack Stakes:
Kevin Ryan has trained the winner of the Gimcrack on three occasions (2005 Amadeus Wolf, 2012 Blaine, 2013 Astaire)
Only one of the last ten favourites, Showcasing in 2009, has won the Gimcrack Stakes (Only four since 1994)
Since 1988 only four winners of the Gimcrack came into the race unbeaten
Since 1988 only three winners of the Gimcrack had had just one race prior
Eight of the last ten winners of the Gimcrack were priced no bigger than 8-1
Only two of the last 20 winners of the Gimcrack had run at Glorious Goodwood (2011 Caspar Netscher, 2008 Shaweel)
Only four favourites have won the Ebor in the last 30 years (1990 Further Flight, 1994 Hasten To Add, 1998 Tuning, 2007 Purple Moon)
Four of the last ten winners of the Ebor have been 20-1 or bigger (2003 Saint Alebe, 2006 Mudawin, 2009 Sesanta, 2011 Moyenne Corniche)
Since 2000 all but two of the winners of the Ebor have been drawn 14 or higher (2004 Mephisto & 2011 Moyenne Corniche)
Over the last 30 years only two horses older than five have won the Ebor (2011 Moyenne Corniche, 2005 Sergeant Cecil)
Ten winners of the Ebor since 2000 have been fifth in the betting or worse
2.20 Goodwood - Whiteley Clinic Prestige Stakes:
Eight of the last ten winners of Goodwood’s Prestige Stakes came from the first two in the betting
Sky Lantern came second in the 2012 Prestige Stakes
All of the last ten winners of the Prestige ran no more than three times previously
Magic City has run six times at Goodwood to three wins and a third
2.55 Goodwood - 32Red Handicap:
Eight of the last ten winners of Goodwood’s 2.55 have come from the first three in the betting
The last ten winners of Goodwood’s 2.55 have been drawn no higher than 9
3.30 Goodwood - Doom Bar Celebration Mile:
Five of the last ten winners have been drawn two (2013 Afsare, 2010 Poet’s Voice, 2008 Raven’s Pass, 2006 Caradak, 2005 Chic)
Only two winning favourites in the last ten years (2008 Raven’s Pass, 2013 Afsare)
Six of the last ten winners ran at Royal Ascot en route (2013 Afsare, 2012 Premio Loco, 2011 Dubawi Gold, 2008 Raven’s Pass, 2007 Echelon, 2004 Chic)
Two of the last ten winners had run in the Sussex Stakes (2008 Raven’s Pass, 2005 Chic)
